EUR/JPY into Demand Zone in Theory

Supply and Demand, EUR/JPY is now into the session's Demand Zone shown by my trend-lines. Took a $40K contract long with the idea that it may go higher today.

As usual, the future cannot be predicted with 100% accuracy, but we can make plays based on patterns and indicators.

AUD/USD Update

Interesting to see a partial confirmation of my earlier Analysis. Hopefully going much much higher in the next day or so.

Immediate target of 1.0450ish area, and if this resistance zone is broken with sufficient strength, I'm confirmed for a move to at least the 1.0520 highs of last week, and depending, a break higher on that range to 1.06 / 1.07 area.

EURJPY Looking a bit Tempting

Looking at this 5-Minute Chart, the possibilities are very tempting. Could it break new highs or retreat lower.

I'm not sure, so I'm not taking a position, simply watching in case I do get a confirmation either way.

AUD/USD, 240 Min Chart, Yet Another Perspective

Continuing from my last few posts on this trade, this new snapshot from my charts should speak for itself. This is why everyone should look at multiple time-frames for any trade they are about to take or any trade they are into.

It looks as though price is on the way from swing low to swing high. The next few hours/days will confirm or deny. Yet another perspective, the 5-minute chart drills down to the essence of the action in the Asia session:

It also shows some short term resistance levels against price moving higher.

In Trading, Psychology is Key

About to go out and have a bit of fun, my week has been great and bad, but I continue to exist, and I move forward. I am about to share time with friends and have a bit of fun, but I did want to share a gem of a webinar that I found on fxstreet.com on trading psychology, which is in my opinion, how the mind works, the most important factor in trading and in life.

The Trading Mindset

AUD/USD Update Downtrend Appears Confirmed but...

The Downtrend seems quite evident now on this pair, but it appears as though the low of the trend is in place for the time being. The long position may still have some validity, based on a possible upward move in the channel drawn on an hourly chart here:

A more conservative target of 1.0480 to 1.0490 might be possible, but it probably will not happen during this trading week. I would keep a stop below 1.0380 for the day and possibly even lower for the weekend if I were in a long position. While this might be a mistake, and it does violate a trading rule held by many traders, conditions are dynamic and can often change at a moment's notice. I am of the opinion that adjusting stops can be done within reason if conditions keep your goal within reach and the additional loss is not beyond your tolerance. There is no reward without risk.

AUD/USD Rectangle on the 60 Minute Chart

Although I have read a few reports and seen that the AUD/USD could be forming a new downtrend, it has yet to be confirmed from my perspective.

Looking at this 60-minute chart, it could make sense to buy in the demand area of 1.0420 - 1.0450 on the possibility that the AUD/USD will return to 1.05/1.06 in the next week. Either of these are good targets, depending on which way the market and sentiment moves.

On this 240-minute chart, there may also be support found in the 1.0350, the 0.250 Fibonacci from the June 1st Lows (0.9580) up to the August 9th highs (1.0613), and a 200 hour SMA found at 1.0380. Depending on what happens, this could even be a sell signal from present price of 1.440 down to this area.

Then again, it is Friday, and who knows what will happen on the weekend, so I may just close what I have in the next few hours and call it a week.

First $1000 Week In a Long Time

This week is a bit of a milestone, but I have been here before. This time, I will do what I did not do the last time I reached this goal: I will stop to smell the roses, as they say. When I started trading, I came up with a series of goals, one that stands out in my mind from several years ago, aside from the Aston Martin I wanted, was to build a $500 trading account into a $5000 trading account, in a period of 6 months through successful trades. I was doing this full time, living in my father's basement, and unemployed so I had not much else to do at the time. I dived into the markets, I researched, I lived, breathed and slept trading; yes I even had dreams where I was trading.

The end result was that I did reach that goal in approximately six months, but the problem was that I broke a few rules to get there and I did not know how to behave once I reached that mountain top. Well, I kept going, and I kept taking risks without proper analysis and I got into a series of trades that broke my account pretty much right back down to 500 or 600 dollars but I would need to check my monthly statements to confirm the exact amount. I climbed up to the top of the mountain and ran right over the peak and went down to were I started.

Several years later, while working a full time job that has been stressful to put it mildly, I have once again reached that goal I set for myself, and in one week, a series of trades put my account back up to $5000 with this week's gains going slightly over $1000. This time, I am taking some time to reflect on what I have achieved, on what I have sacrificed, but more importantly what I have learned and what my future goals are from where I am now. Where ever I want to go, whatever I want to do, it is just a matter of time, patience, and discipline.

EUR/USD Report August 16, 2012

I have been trading mostly with the YEN crosses in the last month and a half, through which I have had my best month ever. I wanted to take a breather from the volatility and decided to play a bit with the EUR/USD and also with the GBP/USD. I have found a possible bullish signal for EUR/USD, provided any bad news is limited in the next day or so. Looking at the 240 minute chart, there is a trend-line beginning in July:

If the July trend-line (starting July 24 lows) holds @ 1.2250/60, then there may be a bounce targeting 1.2400/50 depending, but if that line breaks, 1.2150 (Aug 8, 2012 lows) would be the first target of a move down. There are no guarantees either way, so be careful with your account and take responsibility for your own actions.