Thursday 21 November 2013

GBPNZD Is that a touch of Negative (Bearish) Divergence I see?

Possibly, if you compare the tops here (provided the price does not move significantly higher). Seeing the two red dots I have painted on both the RSI below the price action and the price chart. As a bonus, both 240 minute Bollinger Bands have been pierced, which to me, means possibly a heavily overbought situation on the pound vs. the kiwi.

I am now holding with a stop above, and my target would be lower by a couple hundred pips, but is subject to change, as with the stop loss. As this would be a positive carry trade, the risk reward has an added bonus of earning daily regardless of price action. Price at the time of this writing was 1.9633/40 (where the dot is approx).


Friday 1 November 2013

USDCHF Daily Candle Trendline Break

This morning I woke up to this. As of 08:20 EST, the descending trend-line drawn from the September 6, 2013 highs has been violated in force with this daily candle. If the data this morning continues in favor of the USD, the next theoretical supply zone is 0.9180 where I have drawn the horizontal red line. I am still long for the time being and watching data and price into the close today. Looking back, the most recent FOMC meeting gave the dollar a shot in the arm. On the other side of this trade, the pair may fall due to profit taking, and the next 2 hours or so are key. Data for USD today:
                                                                               Actual        Consensus   Prev
08:58   USD
Manufacturing PMI 51.8             51.1           51.1
09:10   USD
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks  







10:00   USD
ISM Manufacturing Index             55.0           56.2
10:00   USD
ISM Manufacturing Prices             55.0           56.5
10:30   USD
ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)                               2.0%








17:00   USD
All Car Sales                               7.53M
17:00   USD
Domestic Car Sales           5.30M          5.24M
17:00   USD
Total Vehicle Sales           15.40M        15.21M