Wednesday 25 September 2013

EURNOK Triangle ~ Fading Move Up

EUR/NOK is not a pair that I don't have extensive experience with, but it does offer opportunities. I'm noticing that price has moved into what I consider the upper end of the range for the last several months, so I think a sell with a reasonable stop makes sense from a risk reward perspective:
Selling near current levels 8.14000 for a move back down even to 8.00 or lower, say to 7.8000-7.9000 with a stop above the recent highs at 8.1650 could work out.

Tuesday 24 September 2013

USD/CHF Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Asian Session

I am only beginning to start using Ichimoku in my analysis, certainly not yet for entries, but I think I'm going to start using it more. USD/CHF is now challenging 1st level of resistance in my view. After going below 0.9100 a few times in the last several days, the pair has managed to carve out a temporary base at 0.9090-0.9110 and is advancing on 0.9130-40:

Slightly bullish, but cautiously considering the recent drop. In my view, if it goes higher, the next test would be 0.9170-80, above here, gains can accelerate. Aside from the move up in price, on this chart with Ichimoku cloud, the Tenkansen line (blue) has just crossed the Kijunsen line (green) in the last 4-hour candle; a sign of an impending move up if things hold up.

USD/CHF Update

Last few hours look semi-constructive USD/CHF to go higher:


More USD data in the next hour could change this very quickly, but an attempt to break 0.9130-40 resistance may occur in the next few hours.

16:09 Update...up to 0.9129/27 near end of day.

USD/CHF Attempting Retrace above 0.9100

EUR/USD has fallen from the highs this morning on worse than expected IFO data, and is now below 1.3500 again, as this pair is inversely correlated to USD/CHF, the latter is moving up off of it's lows of .9080 from two days ago. 60 Minute chart:

Any long positions would probably want to keep a relatively tight stop below 0.9180-70, but an earnest breach of the 0.9100 handle would probably invite more sellers and stop-loss selling for a target of 0.90 or lower. On the other hand, a move above 0.9120 would target the 0.9130-35 highs of September 23, 2013, beyond which we have 0.9175 or the 0.250 %  Fibonacci retracement of the post FOMC drop from September 18, 2013 after the lack of Fed Tapering in September was announced. Going long here makes sense if 0.9130 is taken out convincingly for a move back above 0.92 in the next day or two. I am long from 0.9110 with a small position.

Thursday 12 September 2013

USD/JPY set to try for the 99 handle once more?

Taking a view of the hourly, and in regard to last night's Nikkei sell-off, should the mood continue, 0.99 could be venerable for another challenge in the next few hours:



If I were to sell, I would be watching the Nikkei for validity for a further move down, and keep a tight stop just shy of 100.00

NZD/USD Resistance Level 81.00-81.90 Area

NZD/USD at resistance level. 81.50, potential for a double top:

on the daily chart, obviously this would require a confirmation with a daily candle close below 81.35 in my opinion, better 81.00, where 80.50 and 80.00 can become vulnerable. If the range holds true, and a move lower occurs, 81.35-65 are decent sell areas depending on risk tolerance, for a swing trade. If I were to sell it, and it works, I would be looking for profit taking around 80.90-80.50 areas, depending on what happens with the news this evening:

18:30    NZ    NZD    Business NZ PMI (Aug)    2              59.5: -ve to 57.5 not much reaction
18:45    NZ    NZD    Food Price Index (MoM) (Aug)    1   0.5%: -ve to -0.5%        
21:00    NZ    NZD    ANZ Business Confidence (Sep)    2           52.8

Obviously better than expected numbers on these could send well into 82.00 and above.

Update @ 22:00 hours

Hourly chart here on NZD/USD:



Decisions, decisions...uptrend looks vulnerable here at 81.15-25, watching closely as it may bounce from here.

End result stopped out sometime after 02:00 hours EST after several unsuccessful goes at the 0.81 figure > my trade ended at 0.8110 for a total of 28 pips in my favor; not the best result but better than a kick in the you know what.