Friday 7 March 2014

It has been a heck of a week

I am a bit busy to be posting charts and detailed analysis at the moment. My EURUSD -ve and USDCHF +ve trades worked out decently during the week, and a bit of scalping here and there has kept me on my toes. Sold the EUR again, bought it during the ECB meeting where I am pretty sure everyone went "bullish" on the currency. Then took a short - which was poorly timed, but the deal still has potential either to BE or a bit better. Also bought some USDCHF during the latest plunge, that deal is also underwater at the moment.

I am not sure what next week will bring, but I did manage to push my leverage envelope a bit and took a nice 50 pip scalp by shorting GBPUSD with a single contract prior to the NFP drop that occurred after the "surprise" to the upside and a broad USD recovery - which is my lesson for the week, and one I have learned previously but obviously not all that well. Having a good idea and having a good trade setup, and excellent execution can still leave you wanting if your margin is tied into deals that are going nowhere fast.

Inside me there are two traders, or three: one trader takes the long view and takes deals that will most likely pay off well in the long run, but has to wait patiently before they pay off, and consequently is eager to tie his margin up to have his money "at work". The other trader maintains a short view, if it is not happening now, it is not happening, sees opportunities on the spot and takes the plunge, trading fast and hard, and gives nothing back, and likes to keep his margin open and available, and rarely gets "trapped". Should I gain sufficient capital, I will promise to open a second account, and keep these two traders separate.

In the meantime, as I rarely have the time to update this blog, though I still do, and plan to keep it going, I have added a twitter feed on the sidebar, which is much easier to update on the fly so to speak, so feel free to follow me there.

Saturday 1 March 2014

Feburary 2014 Over, March begins, Updates and Ideas

EURUSD -ve 10K @ 1.375 as of Feb 28, 2014
EURUSD Daily Chart taken March 1, 2014 - Indicators used RSI, CCI 20, ADX/DMI

Looking to sell into current rally as my Monthly TF puts sell zone from 1.3750-1.3975

Considering adding to short above 1.38, possibly this week if price moves up.

Will consider adding if it goes down as well, suffice to say I am long term bearish on EUR vs USD

I would cut and run on a strong move above said 1.3975-1.4060 depending. A daily close above 1.39 would be extremely troubling for this idea/and first sell order, prior to any action near 1.40 regardless. A more cautious move would be to wait for a series of movements to point the way back below 1.3720 to add additional contracts.

Should this position be held until next Friday, March 07, 2014, NFP results may well decide if it stays on.

More to add to this post later...time to relax