EURNOK Triangle ~ Fading Move Up

EUR/NOK is not a pair that I don't have extensive experience with, but it does offer opportunities. I'm noticing that price has moved into what I consider the upper end of the range for the last several months, so I think a sell with a reasonable stop makes sense from a risk reward perspective:

Selling near current levels 8.14000 for a move back down even to 8.00 or lower, say to 7.8000-7.9000 with a stop above the recent highs at 8.1650 could work out.

USD/CHF Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Asian Session

I am only beginning to start using Ichimoku in my analysis, certainly not yet for entries, but I think I'm going to start using it more. USD/CHF is now challenging 1st level of resistance in my view. After going below 0.9100 a few times in the last several days, the pair has managed to carve out a temporary base at 0.9090-0.9110 and is advancing on 0.9130-40:

Slightly bullish, but cautiously considering the recent drop. In my view, if it goes higher, the next test would be 0.9170-80, above here, gains can accelerate. Aside from the move up in price, on this chart with Ichimoku cloud, the Tenkansen line (blue) has just crossed the Kijunsen line (green) in the last 4-hour candle; a sign of an impending move up if things hold up.

USD/CHF Update

Last few hours look semi-constructive USD/CHF to go higher:

More USD data in the next hour could change this very quickly, but an attempt to break 0.9130-40 resistance may occur in the next few hours.

16:09 Update...up to 0.9129/27 near end of day.

USD/CHF Attempting Retrace above 0.9100

EUR/USD has fallen from the highs this morning on worse than expected IFO data, and is now below 1.3500 again, as this pair is inversely correlated to USD/CHF, the latter is moving up off of it's lows of .9080 from two days ago. 60 Minute chart:

Any long positions would probably want to keep a relatively tight stop below 0.9180-70, but an earnest breach of the 0.9100 handle would probably invite more sellers and stop-loss selling for a target of 0.90 or lower. On the other hand, a move above 0.9120 would target the 0.9130-35 highs of September 23, 2013, beyond which we have 0.9175 or the 0.250 %  Fibonacci retracement of the post FOMC drop from September 18, 2013 after the lack of Fed Tapering in September was announced. Going long here makes sense if 0.9130 is taken out convincingly for a move back above 0.92 in the next day or two. I am long from 0.9110 with a small position.

USD/JPY set to try for the 99 handle once more?

Taking a view of the hourly, and in regard to last night's Nikkei sell-off, should the mood continue, 0.99 could be venerable for another challenge in the next few hours:

If I were to sell, I would be watching the Nikkei for validity for a further move down, and keep a tight stop just shy of 100.00

NZD/USD Resistance Level 81.00-81.90 Area

NZD/USD at resistance level. 81.50, potential for a double top:

on the daily chart, obviously this would require a confirmation with a daily candle close below 81.35 in my opinion, better 81.00, where 80.50 and 80.00 can become vulnerable. If the range holds true, and a move lower occurs, 81.35-65 are decent sell areas depending on risk tolerance, for a swing trade. If I were to sell it, and it works, I would be looking for profit taking around 80.90-80.50 areas, depending on what happens with the news this evening:

18:30    NZ    NZD    Business NZ PMI (Aug)    2              59.5: -ve to 57.5 not much reaction
18:45    NZ    NZD    Food Price Index (MoM) (Aug)    1   0.5%: -ve to -0.5%        
21:00    NZ    NZD    ANZ Business Confidence (Sep)    2           52.8

Obviously better than expected numbers on these could send well into 82.00 and above.

Update @ 22:00 hours

Hourly chart here on NZD/USD:

Decisions, decisions...uptrend looks vulnerable here at 81.15-25, watching closely as it may bounce from here.

End result stopped out sometime after 02:00 hours EST after several unsuccessful goes at the 0.81 figure > my trade ended at 0.8110 for a total of 28 pips in my favor; not the best result but better than a kick in the you know what. 

NZD/USD Time to buy?

After a very fast decline over the last week, NZD/USD has attracted my attention...

NZD/USD fell to a low of 0.8180, which could form up with a the two most recent lows on the daily chart I have here. There could be a triple bottom formation here if price holds above those lows for the next few hours, a small long position could make an excellent swing trade if the formation is confirmed. I would only consider this valid if price can move above the 200 day moving average, which currently resides around 0.8291 at the time of this post.

EUR/AUD Update...Short Confirmed

For now...

This one might work out, waiting to see if it goes lower. Target is undefined, but I'm letting it run as they say.

EUR/AUD Sell signal?

I have been trying to short the EUR/AUD quite unsuccessfully in the last few days...but this may look good now.

Sold for 30K at around 1.2710 many hours ago > the EUR is overvalued, and the AUD is undervalued perhaps, or not, but the charts do not lie.

AUD/JPY on 4 Hour Time Frame

The 5 minute entry now on for over 24 hours, and it is in the money. The reversal is in the cards, for now...

Now that the deal is on, it is a question of management, which means exiting at the best possible moment with the information I have at the time. The first trend line of resistance has been breached, but not with excessive strength and price is hovering just above it at the moment. The second line of resistance is where I am shooting for, and is realistic in the next 24-48 hours of trading (meaning I may need to hold over the weekend). The ultimate goal, would be shooting for the monthly high of 83, or even better 83.50 of August. At this point, the next few hours may decide if I close this, take my 300ishUSD from $50,000 in positioning, or if I shoot for higher. So far it has been an incredible month, with this month being the first month that I have earned more in my part time job (trading foreign exchange) than I have in my day job; I would love to wrap it up with another decent sized win...

AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY Dual Trade on Again

So, I was looking at co-relations between risk currencies, and when the Japanese Yen is involved, often one Yen Cross parallels another, so I saw a dip and bought some EUR/JPY to go with my AUD/JPY and...

Look at those candles in the last 10 minutes, some high liquidity appears to be available, meaning big money. I'll see how it works out.

AUD/JPY Update, 5-min Entry becomes and Hourly Chart Trade...A Day Later.

My AUD/JPY did in fact go up, as I had anticipated, but not by much...

The good news is that a new trend may be forming (the potential reversal) I wrote about earlier. If this keeps up, the trend line I have drawn at the bottom right hand of the chart could support further advances. The bad news is that I have two trend lines that could be areas that short money could attract (selling AUD/JPY) ~ The nearest to current price could cap advances near 81, which would still be a good trade, but the next would cap somewhere above 82, which would be an excellent trade.

AUD/JPY Update on my 5-Minute Chart Long Entry

Looking for a move above 80.60-70 as confirmation, and it would be nice for it to happen in the next hour or less. If this does happen, and if the gains hold, I will hold. That's a lot of ifs.

AUD/JPY Trying Again on a Smaller Time Frame

5-minute chart, entry 80.53 buy price, target anywhere above 81

I usually take a look at the daily, then the 4-hour chart, then the 60-min, then the 15-min, but in the last 8 months, most of my entries come from a 5-minute chart because I like to get in at the beginning of a reversal if it happens.

Why the reversal might happen: so much selling over the last eight days, that there are probably a large number of stops above the current price action in the mid 80s.

AUD/JPY Moving down to the 100 Day Moving Average

Feeling a bit risky on this one, but perhaps the 100-Day Moving Average might prove a decent buy point on AUD/JPY. Lately, this pair has been very good to me, but I've been stung once or twice with a couple of losses. On the other hand, my wins have netted me over $1000 in the last couple of months on this pair, and it will most likely bounce in the next day or so, if the current ranges hold.

I'm now waiting for 80.60-80.68, depending; I may not take it, but it's a good enough entry, with a tight stop considering the move down today during the American Session. Bought in, going to wait at least an hour or two to see where price goes, 1st Target would be slightly above 81 and if that is cleared with sufficient margin to keep my stop near there without it getting taken, I would then shoot for 82 or the monthly high of 83.

Aside, I want to reflect on where I am and where I want to be as both a trader and a human being. I am not yet in the place I want to be, but I am alive, I am relatively healthy, relatively young. Nearing the next big figure on my account of 8K, it's been a hell of a year in more ways than one, but despite all my failures and with the aid of my successes, I continue.