USDCHF Daily Candle Trendline Break

This morning I woke up to this. As of 08:20 EST, the descending trend-line drawn from the September 6, 2013 highs has been violated in force with this daily candle. If the data this morning continues in favor of the USD, the next theoretical supply zone is 0.9180 where I have drawn the horizontal red line. I am still long for the time being and watching data and price into the close today. Looking back, the most recent FOMC meeting gave the dollar a shot in the arm. On the other side of this trade, the pair may fall due to profit taking, and the next 2 hours or so are key. Data for USD today:
                                                                               Actual        Consensus   Prev

08:58	USD		Manufacturing PMI	51.8	51.1           51.1
09:10	USD		FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
10:00	USD		ISM Manufacturing Index		55.0           56.2
10:00	USD		ISM Manufacturing Prices		55.0           56.5
10:30	USD		ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)		2.0%
17:00	USD		All Car Sales		7.53M
17:00	USD		Domestic Car Sales		5.30M          5.24M
17:00	USD		Total Vehicle Sales		15.40M        15.21M

USDCHF and NZDCHF Updates ~ Both Longs in Money Currently

Not too much time to write here, I am long on both of these currency pairs, from more than a week ago on USDCHF - which has been under water till this morning, and my NZDCHF which dipped yesterday uncomfortably below 0.74 but moved back up since the FOMC meeting. I am holding both for higher prices, but I have to accept the possibility that the market does not agree with me. In the next few hours I am looking for USDCHF (on the left) to violate the downward trendline from the September 2013 highs. and for NZDCHF to clear the 0.75 handle. My most immediate concern right now is the October NFP report which comes out on Friday November 8th where USDCHF (wherever it is) may take a monstrous hit because the NFP is not looking good from where I am standing.

Moving Done, Unpacking Started, Trading Slowly at First ~ NZDCHF Looking good as a small carry to join my USDCHF

Moving done, unpacking started, and the trades are starting. I am kicking myself a bit for jumping the gun on my EUR/USD short today ~ taking a measly 15 pips before the real move started, same with EUR/JPY, but that one did not travel as far down. Still, a few pips added to the account is better than a kick in the butt...as I have learned to tell myself when this sort of thing happens. Another way of putting this into perspective is that my life just changed drastically and my trading was only off-line for about 3 days ~ a bad three days to be out being month end an all, but C'est la vie!

I have not traded this pair at all, and NZDUSD is still a bit expensive for my liking, I would love to buy that in the high 70s and hold it, so I will do this instead as it has come down quite a clip in the last quarter and looks to be basing around the 0.74 handle.

I am only playing on contract, and as such it gives me almost nothing to play with in terms of multiple scenarios. I would love it to bounce back above 75, but I think that may provide some near-term resistance. RBNZ rhetoric should also provide some talking against this position, but I think a trip to 0.7470-90 could happen relatively quickly, say a couple of days. I will be watching for that level and would probably get out on a significant retrace if it goes up and turns back down below 75; in the meantime, it is a relatively stable carry trade. First hurdle would be 0.7030-45 on this one.
 

USD/CHF Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Asian Session

I am only beginning to start using Ichimoku in my analysis, certainly not yet for entries, but I think I'm going to start using it more. USD/CHF is now challenging 1st level of resistance in my view. After going below 0.9100 a few times in the last several days, the pair has managed to carve out a temporary base at 0.9090-0.9110 and is advancing on 0.9130-40:

Slightly bullish, but cautiously considering the recent drop. In my view, if it goes higher, the next test would be 0.9170-80, above here, gains can accelerate. Aside from the move up in price, on this chart with Ichimoku cloud, the Tenkansen line (blue) has just crossed the Kijunsen line (green) in the last 4-hour candle; a sign of an impending move up if things hold up.

USD/CHF Update

Last few hours look semi-constructive USD/CHF to go higher:

More USD data in the next hour could change this very quickly, but an attempt to break 0.9130-40 resistance may occur in the next few hours.

16:09 Update...up to 0.9129/27 near end of day.

USD/CHF Attempting Retrace above 0.9100

EUR/USD has fallen from the highs this morning on worse than expected IFO data, and is now below 1.3500 again, as this pair is inversely correlated to USD/CHF, the latter is moving up off of it's lows of .9080 from two days ago. 60 Minute chart:

Any long positions would probably want to keep a relatively tight stop below 0.9180-70, but an earnest breach of the 0.9100 handle would probably invite more sellers and stop-loss selling for a target of 0.90 or lower. On the other hand, a move above 0.9120 would target the 0.9130-35 highs of September 23, 2013, beyond which we have 0.9175 or the 0.250 %  Fibonacci retracement of the post FOMC drop from September 18, 2013 after the lack of Fed Tapering in September was announced. Going long here makes sense if 0.9130 is taken out convincingly for a move back above 0.92 in the next day or two. I am long from 0.9110 with a small position.

USD/CHF Trade Idea > Long at Demand Zone

Based on the last significant Demand Zone, I am entering an Automated Trade order based on this chart:

Based on the last significant buying area (demand zone), when it was a good idea to go long on this pair, I have entered an automated order to purchase 3 mini-lots or a $30,000 contract to purchase this pair long at 0.9433 if it dips with the intention of the pair bouncing up to a supply zone of 0.9560ish. Risk -ve 23 pips vs. Reward +ve 129pips. I may remove the automated order and do this one manually or adjust the entry point based on the activity in the next hour or two. Swing low to swing high.

GBP/USD Soars past 1.7000 and looks set to go beyond

Sometimes your wrong; but when it's obvious that your wrong, it's important to have tight stops. I refused to take a small profit on the GBP/USD short several times, and when it refused to go below 1.6900 after three very solid attempts. I should have liquidated, but often I start to think a little less clearly when I've been watching the charts for too long. The USD/CHF deal is still on and it seems to be holding above 1.06 exactly where I left it last night. I think I'm going to be devoting a little more time to my trade setups and reserve my blogging here for the weekends.

Contrarian Plays for the USD in seemingly oversold conditions = Buy Low, Sell High

Sold 2 mini-contracts of GBP/USD at the 1.6930ish (downtrending resistance on the hourly) as the cable seems to have overextended it's reach; that and a double top at the 1.70ish area. Bought 1 mini-contract of USD/CHF which I almost never play, but seems very oversold on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, and appears to have based out at or near 1.06/1.0610 where I bought. Last week was an amazing week for risk, so there is the possibility that we get the usual correction or consolidation. I'm going fairly light this week because there is hesitation both ways right now, which means it's not the time for aggressive and heavy positioning. I would like to have both of these positions turn into swing trades, but I'll have to see what the mood of the market is in the next few hours to see if I have confirmation. Although the S&P has cleared the 1000 mark, there is hesitation in the afternoon to carry it higher, and the USD selling has paused. Nontheless I am fully concious of the trends, and I am hoping to move myself to break even on both deals at the first reasonable opportunity. If I have some spare time later, I'll show some charts on both pairs.