USDCHF Daily Candle Trendline Break

This morning I woke up to this. As of 08:20 EST, the descending trend-line drawn from the September 6, 2013 highs has been violated in force with this daily candle. If the data this morning continues in favor of the USD, the next theoretical supply zone is 0.9180 where I have drawn the horizontal red line. I am still long for the time being and watching data and price into the close today. Looking back, the most recent FOMC meeting gave the dollar a shot in the arm. On the other side of this trade, the pair may fall due to profit taking, and the next 2 hours or so are key. Data for USD today:
                                                                               Actual        Consensus   Prev

08:58	USD		Manufacturing PMI	51.8	51.1           51.1
09:10	USD		FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
10:00	USD		ISM Manufacturing Index		55.0           56.2
10:00	USD		ISM Manufacturing Prices		55.0           56.5
10:30	USD		ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)		2.0%
17:00	USD		All Car Sales		7.53M
17:00	USD		Domestic Car Sales		5.30M          5.24M
17:00	USD		Total Vehicle Sales		15.40M        15.21M

Possibly Looking to Pick up An AUDJPY Contract if My Price is Met

Looking at AUDJPY ~ I would love to have bought in the high 80s the last time it was in that vicinity - oh wait, I did, but I did not hold. My living circumstances at the time contributed to a poor trading environment, but that is another post altogether.

Looking at this hourly chart for AUDJPY, I am looking at the area below current prices as a possible buying point. If I were more aggressive, I would buy now and say the hell with it, but that latest hourly candle is looking like a hammer, which means down further possibly. The 92.60-90 area could be a great buying opportunity as a potential demand zone, if it holds and moves back up into the next supply area at 0.9350ish. I have a pending order at this point in that area and I am watching closely the data coming up in the next few hours.

USDCHF and NZDCHF Updates ~ Both Longs in Money Currently

Not too much time to write here, I am long on both of these currency pairs, from more than a week ago on USDCHF - which has been under water till this morning, and my NZDCHF which dipped yesterday uncomfortably below 0.74 but moved back up since the FOMC meeting. I am holding both for higher prices, but I have to accept the possibility that the market does not agree with me. In the next few hours I am looking for USDCHF (on the left) to violate the downward trendline from the September 2013 highs. and for NZDCHF to clear the 0.75 handle. My most immediate concern right now is the October NFP report which comes out on Friday November 8th where USDCHF (wherever it is) may take a monstrous hit because the NFP is not looking good from where I am standing.

NZDCHF Update on the Hourly

Not too much movement, the pair has been confined to a 40 or so pip range since I took the deal, but it seems to have broken the first line of resistance drawn on my chart here (diagonal descending trend-line in red). It is still below the two parallel lines of resistance which I consider a possible sell area slightly above.

Risk event is of course the RBNZ rate decision and the accompanying statement:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/ocr/
Forex.com provides a bit of insight here:
http://www.forex.com/post?SDN=fba3bc39-0af7-423a-9394-561668b47628

Moving Done, Unpacking Started, Trading Slowly at First ~ NZDCHF Looking good as a small carry to join my USDCHF

Moving done, unpacking started, and the trades are starting. I am kicking myself a bit for jumping the gun on my EUR/USD short today ~ taking a measly 15 pips before the real move started, same with EUR/JPY, but that one did not travel as far down. Still, a few pips added to the account is better than a kick in the butt...as I have learned to tell myself when this sort of thing happens. Another way of putting this into perspective is that my life just changed drastically and my trading was only off-line for about 3 days ~ a bad three days to be out being month end an all, but C'est la vie!

I have not traded this pair at all, and NZDUSD is still a bit expensive for my liking, I would love to buy that in the high 70s and hold it, so I will do this instead as it has come down quite a clip in the last quarter and looks to be basing around the 0.74 handle.

I am only playing on contract, and as such it gives me almost nothing to play with in terms of multiple scenarios. I would love it to bounce back above 75, but I think that may provide some near-term resistance. RBNZ rhetoric should also provide some talking against this position, but I think a trip to 0.7470-90 could happen relatively quickly, say a couple of days. I will be watching for that level and would probably get out on a significant retrace if it goes up and turns back down below 75; in the meantime, it is a relatively stable carry trade. First hurdle would be 0.7030-45 on this one.
 

EURNOK At 8.1300 ~ At Supply?

While this pair has gone up quite a bit in the last 3 days, forming a Three White Soldiers formation within the up-channel, which could move it higher, I do think it is near the top of the range and I am therefore adding a pending sell order a few hundred pips higher, at 8.2300ish. Should my stop hold, I would look to take profit near the big level of 8.1000 or lower, depending on circumstances as they change.

EURUSD Selling Opportunity Weekly Bollinger Band Touch

I am a breakout trader and I am a range trader, which strategy I use depends on the situation. With the way I have my Bollinger Bands set up, I rarely see a touch on these, and when I do, I take the opportunity. I do have a stop here on this sell, but it is well above 1.38 which I think would be the next resistance area on EURUSD as the currency has now made a new high for 2013. I am selling at 1.3760, with the objective to be decided over the next day or so, should my stop hold. Should price reverse in the next day and start heading lower this makes for a decent swing trade setup. As a supporting factor, the RSI on EURUSD is not matching the recent strength of price action, therefore, this could be the start of a bearish divergence signal.

USD/CHF Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Asian Session

I am only beginning to start using Ichimoku in my analysis, certainly not yet for entries, but I think I'm going to start using it more. USD/CHF is now challenging 1st level of resistance in my view. After going below 0.9100 a few times in the last several days, the pair has managed to carve out a temporary base at 0.9090-0.9110 and is advancing on 0.9130-40:

Slightly bullish, but cautiously considering the recent drop. In my view, if it goes higher, the next test would be 0.9170-80, above here, gains can accelerate. Aside from the move up in price, on this chart with Ichimoku cloud, the Tenkansen line (blue) has just crossed the Kijunsen line (green) in the last 4-hour candle; a sign of an impending move up if things hold up.

USD/CHF Update

Last few hours look semi-constructive USD/CHF to go higher:

More USD data in the next hour could change this very quickly, but an attempt to break 0.9130-40 resistance may occur in the next few hours.

16:09 Update...up to 0.9129/27 near end of day.

USD/CHF Attempting Retrace above 0.9100

EUR/USD has fallen from the highs this morning on worse than expected IFO data, and is now below 1.3500 again, as this pair is inversely correlated to USD/CHF, the latter is moving up off of it's lows of .9080 from two days ago. 60 Minute chart:

Any long positions would probably want to keep a relatively tight stop below 0.9180-70, but an earnest breach of the 0.9100 handle would probably invite more sellers and stop-loss selling for a target of 0.90 or lower. On the other hand, a move above 0.9120 would target the 0.9130-35 highs of September 23, 2013, beyond which we have 0.9175 or the 0.250 %  Fibonacci retracement of the post FOMC drop from September 18, 2013 after the lack of Fed Tapering in September was announced. Going long here makes sense if 0.9130 is taken out convincingly for a move back above 0.92 in the next day or two. I am long from 0.9110 with a small position.

NZD/USD Resistance Level 81.00-81.90 Area

NZD/USD at resistance level. 81.50, potential for a double top:

on the daily chart, obviously this would require a confirmation with a daily candle close below 81.35 in my opinion, better 81.00, where 80.50 and 80.00 can become vulnerable. If the range holds true, and a move lower occurs, 81.35-65 are decent sell areas depending on risk tolerance, for a swing trade. If I were to sell it, and it works, I would be looking for profit taking around 80.90-80.50 areas, depending on what happens with the news this evening:

18:30    NZ    NZD    Business NZ PMI (Aug)    2              59.5: -ve to 57.5 not much reaction
18:45    NZ    NZD    Food Price Index (MoM) (Aug)    1   0.5%: -ve to -0.5%        
21:00    NZ    NZD    ANZ Business Confidence (Sep)    2           52.8

Obviously better than expected numbers on these could send well into 82.00 and above.

Update @ 22:00 hours

Hourly chart here on NZD/USD:

Decisions, decisions...uptrend looks vulnerable here at 81.15-25, watching closely as it may bounce from here.

End result stopped out sometime after 02:00 hours EST after several unsuccessful goes at the 0.81 figure > my trade ended at 0.8110 for a total of 28 pips in my favor; not the best result but better than a kick in the you know what. 

NZD/USD Time to buy?

After a very fast decline over the last week, NZD/USD has attracted my attention...

NZD/USD fell to a low of 0.8180, which could form up with a the two most recent lows on the daily chart I have here. There could be a triple bottom formation here if price holds above those lows for the next few hours, a small long position could make an excellent swing trade if the formation is confirmed. I would only consider this valid if price can move above the 200 day moving average, which currently resides around 0.8291 at the time of this post.

AUD/JPY on 4 Hour Time Frame

The 5 minute entry now on for over 24 hours, and it is in the money. The reversal is in the cards, for now...

Now that the deal is on, it is a question of management, which means exiting at the best possible moment with the information I have at the time. The first trend line of resistance has been breached, but not with excessive strength and price is hovering just above it at the moment. The second line of resistance is where I am shooting for, and is realistic in the next 24-48 hours of trading (meaning I may need to hold over the weekend). The ultimate goal, would be shooting for the monthly high of 83, or even better 83.50 of August. At this point, the next few hours may decide if I close this, take my 300ishUSD from $50,000 in positioning, or if I shoot for higher. So far it has been an incredible month, with this month being the first month that I have earned more in my part time job (trading foreign exchange) than I have in my day job; I would love to wrap it up with another decent sized win...

AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY Dual Trade on Again

So, I was looking at co-relations between risk currencies, and when the Japanese Yen is involved, often one Yen Cross parallels another, so I saw a dip and bought some EUR/JPY to go with my AUD/JPY and...

Look at those candles in the last 10 minutes, some high liquidity appears to be available, meaning big money. I'll see how it works out.

AUD/JPY Update, 5-min Entry becomes and Hourly Chart Trade...A Day Later.

My AUD/JPY did in fact go up, as I had anticipated, but not by much...

The good news is that a new trend may be forming (the potential reversal) I wrote about earlier. If this keeps up, the trend line I have drawn at the bottom right hand of the chart could support further advances. The bad news is that I have two trend lines that could be areas that short money could attract (selling AUD/JPY) ~ The nearest to current price could cap advances near 81, which would still be a good trade, but the next would cap somewhere above 82, which would be an excellent trade.

AUD/JPY Update on my 5-Minute Chart Long Entry

Looking for a move above 80.60-70 as confirmation, and it would be nice for it to happen in the next hour or less. If this does happen, and if the gains hold, I will hold. That's a lot of ifs.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY Trade Update - Bulls Win with Announcement of "QE Infinity"

With the announcement of the United States Federal Reserve announcing QE3 (link to bloomberg.com) with a pledge to continue asset purchases until the US economy improves, the USD has lost quite a bit of value in the course of a single trading day. My estimate, looking at my quote sheet is about 1 - 1.5 cents against everything so far.

I have a couple of trades on AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, long on both, prior to the FOMC meeting and press conferences, doing fairly well on average. After the announcement, it was quite a fight but both pairs have put in some impressive highs for the week, and the corrections (thus far) seem to be muted.

I am currently waiting on both of these positions to see if they have the potential to reach my first targets of 1.06 on AUD/USD and 82.00 on AUD/JPY, though I may have to wait to see what the Asian Session brings.

AUD Looking Poised for Another Climb

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY both look poised for additional gains, based on my study of these charts. I'm looking at the 15 minute on both.

I'm already long on both, as both carry trades and with profit targets of 1.06/07 on AUD/USD and 82.00/83.00 on AUD/JPY. Thursday and Friday should be interesting to see how they play out.

USD/CHF Trade Idea > Long at Demand Zone

Based on the last significant Demand Zone, I am entering an Automated Trade order based on this chart:

Based on the last significant buying area (demand zone), when it was a good idea to go long on this pair, I have entered an automated order to purchase 3 mini-lots or a $30,000 contract to purchase this pair long at 0.9433 if it dips with the intention of the pair bouncing up to a supply zone of 0.9560ish. Risk -ve 23 pips vs. Reward +ve 129pips. I may remove the automated order and do this one manually or adjust the entry point based on the activity in the next hour or two. Swing low to swing high.

AUD/JPY Bullish for now...

It is a bit late to share this idea, because the time to buy would have been 100-140 pips ago, when I did, but here it is. Good data out of Australia last yesterday and good ADP data, and good ISM data = AUD/JPY up.

In theory, based on ADP data earlier today, the NFP should be okay, and it could go higher. I have a target of 82 to 83, but who knows. Of course the trade balance data out in 20 minutes is pointing south so I may just collect my 100+ pips and call it a week on this pair.