Knowing Which Style to Play and When to Play It Part II

As per my previous post on this topic title I mentioned that I had and am still continuing to face some rather monumental difficulties in my life and in my "career" as a currency trader (aka, foreign exchange operator). I am small time, an account less than 10K (growing though), with some memorable wins and some gut-wrenching losses in my past. My pattern is usually one of two or three steps forward and a step or two back, but at the moment I am progressing. Part of my problem at the moment is the fact that I cannot support myself through this activity alone, but I am looking forward to the day when it will be possible - I was on the cusp of it approximately three years ago, had an account just shy of 10K > grown from 1K a year prior, with an equity curve that I consider impressive considering I was working for someone else full time, with a combined commute of one to two hours a day thrown in to suck extra time away.

Then I got desperate, my work situation was - less than ideal and growing worse by the month, and I decided, and I chose my words carefully - fuck it, I loaded up against GBP/JPY sold 100,000K into the wickedest rally that I ever saw on this pair - a pair which for the most part I loved to buy low and sell high on. I threw myself against a brick wall, and refused to give up - being honest here. I lost, in the end $4500 on the trade when on Boxing day of 2013, the markets gaped above my stop loss - or did I run out of margin - no matter - I was stupid, and I was stupid for a period of a couple of months where I kept thinking I would come back, and I kept selling on the way up to add to my woes. Plain and simple I was an idiot, running into a brick wall repeatedly, thinking, soon it will retrace and then return to the range, and I'll earn my next 10K in a matter of months. I cannot stress the utter stupidity of the initial decision, but also the continued stupidity of what I continued deciding as the days wore on and I lost more ground to this trade, never mind the -ve carry on this sucker.

It takes a special kind of idiot (me at the time) to allow the feeling of desperation to overwhelm my normally good judgement (and cold blooded trading style), to interfere with my analysis, my money management, and my damn case money.

Never mind the fact that less than a year later, I did this again with the AUD/USD (during the shocking interest rate cut), this time I went long, and continued buying on the way down. lost only 1.5 K on that one, and in my defense, it was my home life (roommate, whom I sure meant well, but was extraordinarily harsh to be around), that was the distraction and the negative influence, so much so that on the month that I moved, I wrote this this piece on the importance of a good environment when attempting to work magic, to employ a craft, to build something of lasting value.

I am now here, just under a year later, and while it has definitely not been a cakewalk by any stretch of the imagination, I feel that my instincts for the trade are somewhat returning. I am nowhere near the level that I was back in the first 3 quarters of 2011, where for three or four solid months, I was earning more money trading than I was at my day job, while working my day job, while commuting, while sacrificing precious time in the present for the future, but I am still playing, and still making gains.

What did I do when I realized I had to fix my brain, especially in regard to how I operated? I stepped back, after a few mistakes, and took things slowly, also my broker started allowing microlot 1K positions to be taken, so I started trying to think like an institutional trader, which means I began to take my business more seriously and enter into deals more cautiously, and more slowly, building positions gradually - which I recommend to anyone who has lost the magic touch of instinctively finding tops and bottoms (which is what I used to do) and playing their whole hand right at the reversal point; which is a bit of bull, it is not magic, and tops and bottoms are generally speaking only a matter of time and perspective (quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour, 1-hour, 15-minute, 5-minute) i.e. which chart is being looked at.

While I have played a few hard and fast trades and done it well on occasion, I traded small for the most part and gradually improved my instincts to the point where some of the fear (and chain-smoking) diminished, and started to have a bit of fun. I realized this step back in intensity and focus allowed me time to heal, and time to look at other aspects of my life sorely lacking...

While I do not think I was quite at the breaking point, I really did feel almost no reason to continue trying, in trading and in life - it was that bad. I am not now in a much better position than I was a couple of months ago, my environment is not great but it is for the most part stable, my day job leaves a bit to be desired but the people there are great, and though I am still way more solitary than I am used to (I miss my old friends badly because I shut them out), I did make a few new friends when I stepped back and just feeling some sincere and meaningful human contact can work wonders even when the world seems to be collapsing around you.

USDJPY to 110 and eventually 200: a few cases for staying Long or Buying on a Dip, or Adding to a Long Position

This is my Daily Chart for USD/JPY, and though I did not post this idea originally when I started establishing my long position months ago, there is new information pertaining to the possible future, and some new technical developments to merit a look back and a look forward.

USD/JPY Daily Chart taken September 09, 2014 at 23:20 EST

When I started establishing this position, I had recognized both the trend from 2012 (I bought much lower that year and cashed in because I did not recognize the opportunity (below 0.80 -which I am still kicking myself for). This currency pair has gone up since then, and was playing between 101 and 103 when I decided not only to start buying, but to hold (a bit unusual for me). In hindsight that previous area of range 100.70ish to about 103.10 now serves as a deep base for the move higher.

I began buying at around the 102 level, and on dips towards 101.50ish, and then even a few tiny additions in the 102/103 level. Now, I should have bought more on the break of 103.10 which was a plan, but instead I trimmed my position to take a minor profit. Nevertheless, I am currently long from 101.85 (Average contract price).

What has gotten interesting as of late is that downward sloping red line from left to right labled (16 year bearish (-ve) trendline...). This is trendline has been indicating that in fact USDJPY was headed downwards over a period of 16 years FXstreet article indicating major resistance started from 16 years ago with tops in place from 150 down to 124,  which by extrapolation put resistance to this trend at about 105.50ish. Price is now not only above 105.50 (closed on daily at 106) On Friday September 06, 2014 and the weekly candle had only a small wick, which technically establishes a daily and weekly break of this 16 year trendline. A monthly close above 105.50 would probably confirm price continuing higher.

For me personally, I am now cautious to add to this position because it is now at highs not seen since October of 2008, and because I have other trades in play as well (margin is precious).

Nevertheless, I have come across some interesting posts today that speculate that price will continue into the 110.00 / 112.00 area before year's end, for example Citi's Case for establishing long USDJPY

This article illustrates Kyle Bass' case for USD/JPY to reach 200 (Yes, pretty much doubling from here) in the next 3-5 years if you have the intestinal fortitude.

A few minutes ago, I came across a article adding to Japan's economic woes on Zero Hedge, as Japan began Monetizing Debt at Negative Rates which could begin the slow process of crashing the Yen.

Another piece of the puzzle is the potential United States Federal Reserve (ironic name considering it is a private bank, but never mind that) to schedule rate hikes in 2015, which would only add fuel to this position as it would become a proper carry trade in full.

After reading all of this and watching the exciting price action over the last couple of weeks, I myself have to take time to pause and reflect on the possibilities here, but I have begun to consider adding to my position on breaks higher should price continue to elevate. Another case, is to try to buy anything approaching that 16 year trendline should price go towards it.

Naturally, none of this information comes with anything close to a guarantee.

EURCHF Update, Potential for Intervention, 240 Minute (4-hour) Chart, Analysis, Order Plan, News, and History

I have been reading and studying possibilities based on my latest idea, buying (long) EUR/CHF above the 1.20 level. The first and foremost fundamental reason for this trade is the theoretical "floor" that the SNB (Swiss National Bank) has set for this currency pair. The premise of this floor is that in order to maintain (inflation / deflation?). The last time 1.20 came into play, this currency pair touched a low of 1.2012 in June of 2012 (numerically poetic?). This happened on June the 9th, of 2012, at 1:02 pm. The Swiss National Bank promptly intervened by selling their own currency / purchasing foreign currency thus driving the exchange rate higher on the pair.

Over a period of weeks, several interventions, to keep the 1.20 minimum exchange rate in place, the last occurring in September of 2012, the pair had a sustainable rally.

After a period of 9 days after the last intervention, the pair touched a high of 1.2180. Over a period of two weeks, once the rally was over, the pair retraced down to 1.2037 over a period of 10 weeks. After which additional movements led to the EUR/CHF pair to move up to 1.2571 (peak) on January 22nd, 2013, and later to 1.2648 on June 22nd, of 2013 (which was were to take profits if you were long this pair at that time).

Obviously, the profits on the successive movements for this pair, occurred well after the last intervention, where patience would have been the key to getting the most out of the investment (months).

My idea on this pair (I have already started purchasing) and laying the groundwork and conditions for additional purchasing (with a small fraction of the margin I have available) is to scale into the investment. Rather than purchasing at a set price with my entire allotment (the cash/margin) I intend to use, I am placing several orders to purchase as the price drops closer to the 1.20 "floor". I have started purchasing as of 1.20562 on August 28th at 06:04. I have additional contract orders to purchase in increments of roughly 10 points below said purchase price down to the 1.20 area.

As illustrated in this 4 hour chart, my pending orders are placed and will not be activated unless the price visits those levels, whereupon additional contracts are added to my position. Should those areas not be touched, my risk level remains even, and the potential reward is also remains even. Should intervention occur successfully, additional contracts could be purchased as the currency pair moves higher, but this would have to done carefully. My stop loss is established, but fairly lower that the 1.1950-1.20 mark where I imagine stops placed by other institutions and traders to have them, (my policy is to not publish my exact stop so that I do not feed the algorithmic traders/black boxes).

So why the floor of 1.20? According to a press release the risk of deflationary pressure on the Swiss Economy increases below this level. Fair enough.

There is a rumor that the SNB will introduce additional measures to maintain their exchange rate with the Euro. First, the possibility of negative rates where the SNB imposes negative interest rates to discourage foreigners from holding Swiss Francs (CHF). This has been done already, during the 1970s. Such an event would make holding Swiss Francs more expensive, and thus encourage other currency pairs to appreciate vs the Swiss Franc over time.

Another rumor is that the SNB will raise this line in the sand from 1.20 to 1.25 or even 1.30...raising the possibility of a profit of approximately 500 to 1000 pips just for buying at or near 1.20, mind you it is just a rumor, and the amount of CHF selling that the SNB would need to manifest a move like that and maintain it is staggering, but again, trading is about ideas followed by action, with no guarantees.

The other side of this trade probably has a mess of Stop-loss orders on the EUR vs the CHF below 1.20 where positions would be liquidated, thus driving the currency pair down even further below 1.20. Should intervention not occur as planned or even fail, I have skimmed one academic paper that states that the currency pair would be trading about 1000+ points lower, say at 1.10 or lower.

This is a game of patience, and it is not for the faint of heart.

The Importance of a Good Environment and Rest ~ Objective: a Healthy Mindset for a Trader

When I moved at the end of last week I did not lose anything of significance but I did lose opportunities during and after the move, both in terms of business and personal. My last living situation was seemingly nice on the outside, a pretty decent house with lots of light, in an okay neighborhood, but it was far from ideal because I was at odds with it, with no one to blame but myself; my current situation is far from ideal as well, but it gives me the peace I need to make better decisions. The situation was so out of balance I even wrote a blog about it to channel the negative energy into something constructive.

When trading, environment and mindset is key. If the environment is a source of negative influence, how does this affect a trading career and how does it affect everything you do? I can answer in a word; it taints everything you do, but I can elaborate. It taints every decision you make, and trading is making decisions! If you are bathed in a constant stream of negative influence, bad energy, and disharmony, you can become desperate. You may not, but why stack the odds against yourself, when you are trying to accomplish something important. As I trade from home, I do not have the luxury of going to an office and leaving my home environment and all the potential distractions and stressors. When I think about all of the opportunities I missed or screwed up over the last several months, it is disheartening, but sometimes, the best lessons come with a high price.

Why fight negativity if you can leave it behind and concentrate on improving and succeeding. Now that I am partially settled, I can get back into a healthy routine and make better decisions for myself in terms of career and personal life. The lesson, be careful with both your associations and your environment because your time is valuable.

Swinging back to the positive, I dug up a great webinar by Steve Patterson that explains the upside of what I am saying here. If you are struggling as a trader, or you want to improve your game, the importance of rest and health is one of the keys, enjoy:

Becoming a consistent trader

EURUSD Selling Opportunity Weekly Bollinger Band Touch

I am a breakout trader and I am a range trader, which strategy I use depends on the situation. With the way I have my Bollinger Bands set up, I rarely see a touch on these, and when I do, I take the opportunity. I do have a stop here on this sell, but it is well above 1.38 which I think would be the next resistance area on EURUSD as the currency has now made a new high for 2013. I am selling at 1.3760, with the objective to be decided over the next day or so, should my stop hold. Should price reverse in the next day and start heading lower this makes for a decent swing trade setup. As a supporting factor, the RSI on EURUSD is not matching the recent strength of price action, therefore, this could be the start of a bearish divergence signal.

Trading On The Go ~ I Move In Four Days

I had the intention of not trading during the last week and this week as I find myself in transition, but then, I make the mistake of opening my charts and seeing opportunities at every turn. I had read somewhere that you should not trade when things are unstable in your emotional realm ~ but that is how life is and if I were to only trade when things were stable, I would have too much time off. I found a good compromise in that I open smaller positions than I can when my life is in extreme flux to compensate the stress load and the results are good! In fact, by playing smaller positions, I've learned to do more with less, as the saying goes. Over the last couple of days, I had a tiny position in EURUSD -ve which I cashed in this morning for +8 pips, USDJPY +ve which I cashed in for +41 pips, and a USDCHF +ve which I cashed in for +2 pips. 50 pips is not bad considering I did not plan on trading at all. Since that, I've re-opened a long USDCHF at a better price and I am sitting in a coffee shop right now, planning the rest of the packing I have to do and the move I have scheduled for this Friday.

The Value of Mobility

Just recently, I found myself away from home (and therefore my desktop) for about three weeks out of the last seven. I did have prior knowledge so I have a laptop. This is about the first time in ten years since I have owned a laptop and I must say that considering what it has done for me, along with the proliferation of Starbucks locations (and their free WiFi service). I am not yet the type of trader that can leave my positions running for days without checking and managing them, so the ability to operate when I am not at a desktop computer is invaluable for me. I know, I could still check my phone and call in (I won't talk about the lousy phone app that my broker provides), so instead I'll just say that I am happy with my new mobile solution. There is nothing worse than a missed opportunity, and this should cut down on those.

Review and Strategy Going forward into Autum 2012

After what I would consider a slow start to the year, with only a couple of trades (literally only one in February), and then a meager spring (only a few), my summer took off and never looked back. I have managed to reach the point where my trading activities are netting almost the equivalent to my day job salary. I work almost 50 hours a week, by the way. I'm not bragging, well, I have put in nearly 5000 hours into this over the last few years, and, it seems, while I was not a slow learner, I was slow to control myself.

This morning, I took my monthly statement from my broker, along with a notebook and sat down in a coffee shop and wrote a bit. My August was decent to say the least, $1670 in profit from a less than $5,000 trading account. 5k was a bit of a barrier for me as I had been there before and crashed afterwards. Now, I'm sitting nicely at $5,800 and looking to $10,000 in the coming months. So far, September has been decent to me with $670 earned this week. I have no illusions about not needing a day job at the moment, but I think the next book I purchase will be the The 4-Hour Work Week.

In the last couple of weeks, something interesting happened, I learned to pace myself, I learned to not sit at my desk all the time and stare at the charts for trades that I had under way. I learned to trust myself, step away and allow my trades to work out. I have in fact spent less time trading and my profits have improved.

Aside from everything else I am doing this weekend, I am going to put some time into studying chart patterns, and planning a couple of automated trades for the next week. I have only limited experience with this, so I will only be using light orders for this while I get my feet wet. In theory, a few minutes of analysis a day could earn profit without me having to manage the trades while they are in process. Now, time to study a bit.

AUD bad data (Trade Balance) but a muted negative response

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

-556M Actual > -300M Consensus > 9M Previous

This is where I get a bit scared, so trade balance is down, down by more than anticipated, and the result is that the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY both dipped but are now showing stability. When this happens, I start to think either technical analysis is winning over fundamental analysis or that something is rotten in Denmark. Mind you, I'm hoping both pairs go up but I can't figure out why.

In Trading, Psychology is Key

About to go out and have a bit of fun, my week has been great and bad, but I continue to exist, and I move forward. I am about to share time with friends and have a bit of fun, but I did want to share a gem of a webinar that I found on fxstreet.com on trading psychology, which is in my opinion, how the mind works, the most important factor in trading and in life.

The Trading Mindset

AUD/USD Update Downtrend Appears Confirmed but...

The Downtrend seems quite evident now on this pair, but it appears as though the low of the trend is in place for the time being. The long position may still have some validity, based on a possible upward move in the channel drawn on an hourly chart here:

A more conservative target of 1.0480 to 1.0490 might be possible, but it probably will not happen during this trading week. I would keep a stop below 1.0380 for the day and possibly even lower for the weekend if I were in a long position. While this might be a mistake, and it does violate a trading rule held by many traders, conditions are dynamic and can often change at a moment's notice. I am of the opinion that adjusting stops can be done within reason if conditions keep your goal within reach and the additional loss is not beyond your tolerance. There is no reward without risk.

First $1000 Week In a Long Time

This week is a bit of a milestone, but I have been here before. This time, I will do what I did not do the last time I reached this goal: I will stop to smell the roses, as they say. When I started trading, I came up with a series of goals, one that stands out in my mind from several years ago, aside from the Aston Martin I wanted, was to build a $500 trading account into a $5000 trading account, in a period of 6 months through successful trades. I was doing this full time, living in my father's basement, and unemployed so I had not much else to do at the time. I dived into the markets, I researched, I lived, breathed and slept trading; yes I even had dreams where I was trading.

The end result was that I did reach that goal in approximately six months, but the problem was that I broke a few rules to get there and I did not know how to behave once I reached that mountain top. Well, I kept going, and I kept taking risks without proper analysis and I got into a series of trades that broke my account pretty much right back down to 500 or 600 dollars but I would need to check my monthly statements to confirm the exact amount. I climbed up to the top of the mountain and ran right over the peak and went down to were I started.

Several years later, while working a full time job that has been stressful to put it mildly, I have once again reached that goal I set for myself, and in one week, a series of trades put my account back up to $5000 with this week's gains going slightly over $1000. This time, I am taking some time to reflect on what I have achieved, on what I have sacrificed, but more importantly what I have learned and what my future goals are from where I am now. Where ever I want to go, whatever I want to do, it is just a matter of time, patience, and discipline.

Mentoring a New Trader

For those who can impart the basics of trading and the psychology of market behaviour, helping someone learn how to trade can be as rewarding personally as it is for the student. For the student, a careful and disciplined application of their new skill set can change their life. For the teacher, the rewards are many. First, there is a reinforcement of the skill they have already honed in the market. Next, the teacher's own trading rules and respect for the market will be relearned and reinforced. Finally, there is a satisfaction to improving someone else's life.

Direct trading advice (as I have learned from my own mentors), should be avoided; a consistently successful and established trader should be able to spot their own opportunities for the duration of their trading careers. In addition, direct trade advice will carry with it, the possibility that the trade will go badly, and potentially sour an otherwise good relationship. Part of learning how to trade is learning to take both responsibility for ones losses and personal satisfaction for one's success. Trade ideas on the other hand can be given freely but with the disclaimer that results are not guaranteed. Often, the best way to teach someone about operating in the market is to show examples of market behavior, and extrapolate possible outcomes.

Much can be learned about trading by direct observation and the very action of taking a continuing series of trades; there is no substitute for direct experience. Researching from a variety of resources including books, forums, and encyclopedias can help tremendously, however, often the most interesting lessons can be learned directly with consistently successful and established traders. While this last source of knowledge might seem out of reach for those students who do not know anyone personally or cannot afford a trading coach, the knowledge is obtainable with some effort. Many recorded webinars and videos can provide a trader with a non-interactive source for this information. Topics include everything from technical analysis to market psychology to building trading strategies and everything in between. Furthermore, many brokers and several websites provide access to live and interactive webinars hosted by traders, analysts, and other experts for a whole host of topics relating to the market.


Finally, a newly minted trader, with a fresh perspective, can show their teacher new information and ideas obtained through their own research and experiences. As with other skills in life, you never stop learning.

An additional note of caution, be careful about choosing who you share knowledge with, trading is a full contact sport and carries with it risks both financial and psychological...

Trading Again after a Break

Some things change, some things stay the same. Since last updating my blog, I have been through quite a few changes in my life. A new job, two moves, and a serious reduction in my trading activities for a spell; this did not and could not last and I find myself trading around my career, working towards the time when I can trade full time. This blog has also been neglected for about two years because I have had nothing to add. I will be making the odd post here, when I have time, but it is not a priority. I would rather be trading, than writing about it. This morning I found myself with a bit of time, a very good run on my positions and I had something to say.

My Forex Trading Success Keys

Along the way to a moderate amount of consistent success (by my own modest standards) in forex trading, I have found a few keys to successful self-management as a would be forex trader. These tools can be used for any type of trader, and in any market.

Research

This should be second nature to a trader in my opinion, as with any mentally intensive field. Even before I started demo trading, I was reading as much as I could, watching as many videos as I could, and organizing my thoughts and observations about trading. Learning is what keeps our minds young, and expands our horizons, so it should be something a trader enjoys. Throughout the course of this blog, I will provide some of my best sources of data, and some of my methods to organizing that data.

Trading Plan

Having a plan is an ideal place to start if you are just new to trading, and even if you have traded for a while, it can be a worthwhile endeavor. Where have you been, and where are you going? A good journey often starts with a plan or outline. Sometimes it is thrown together last minute, sometimes that plan is loosely sketched in broad strokes, and sometimes it is planned with extensive attention to detail; regardless, having at least some idea of why you trade and what you plan to achieve is a good idea.

Rules and Strategies

Assembling and improving your tactics is one of the most important aspects to trading; if a trading plan is your outline, then your rules and strategies can be considered your blueprint for constructing a trading business. The blueprint is an abstract concept and is open to change as circumstances change. For example, when I was starting to trade, I primarily used visual analysis, with my main indicator being the bollinger bands. To me, buying low and selling high or selling high and buying low was intuitive and seemed natural. I was even successful for a while, constantly earning, no matter what. However, as the market changed tone, I was slow to notice, and I allowed habit to dictate the course of my trades, which was damaging to my bottom line. I had to expand my strategies, so I researched and I experimented. While I still make use of bollinger bands, that one strategy is only a single tool amongst the many in my tool box, applied when the circumstances indicate their usefulness. Some important considerations for a traders strategies are answers to basic trading questions:

When to enter the market

For me, I tend to trade mornings, during the European/London trading day, and early American times, and occasionally, during the American afternoon. The reason for this is because price action tends to be the most active during these times, which means that if my trades are good, my potential for profit increases. I will occasionally trade outside these times, but rarely.

What conditions are needed to begin trading

I need to at least have the potential to earn money, which means that I need to see opportunities that present a high probability for my strategies to succeed. Also, I need to be in a reasonable state of mind, with a decent night's sleep behind me, usually an hour or so after I have been awake; at this time I am at or near the peak of my alertness and energy levels for the day. I need to either be in a good mood, or on my way to being in a good mood otherwise I will stay out of the action. Everything else in my life is preferably on hold, an out of mind.

When do you avoid trading

Typically, I will avoid trading when the market is erratic. Some people avoid big news days, but since some of my strategies revolve around news, I have learned to adjust to the price action that happens during large news events. I tend to avoid Friday afternoons (16:00GMT and onwards), Sundays, holidays, and periods of low liquidity. The only way that I can describe trading on a holiday is that the price action is extremely erratic and that price can move in a choppy fashion that makes me uncomfortable.

When to open a trade

Obviously this one is subjective, because entries are defined by strategies. The rule here is that the probability of the trade working should be in my favor. I almost always have mental stops placed even before I open a position, and assign them as soon as I hit the buy or sell.

When to close a trade

Again, this is subjective, but with every trade I try to exit when my position is in profit, with the idea that even a partial profit is better than earning nothing or taking a loss. In fact, my profit target is rarely hit, but I have managed to continually improve my equity on the basis that I am always moving my stop loss inside profit at the nearest opportunity when price goes in my favor. In most cases, I have the philosophy of letting my winners run, which means that I give a profitable position a chance to run higher; I use my stop-loss to lock in profit, and then move it up as the market moves up, usually allowing for a decent amount of retracement. Occasionally, I leave a large amount of money on the table if the price swings against me, but sometimes, this has allowed me to take a 1:3-5 risk/reward on my trade when the market has moved heavily in my direction. In terms of losses, the issue is even more subjective. In the first few months, I would take some losses needlessly because I did not understand enough about support and resistance, so I would often set my stop loss incorrectly. There is nothing more frustrating than watching your stop get taken out, and then watching the market swing back in your direction and hit your target. Sometimes, you have to look at larger time frames and determine major areas of support and resistance. If you are too slow to get out of a negative position, it is sometimes beneficial look at a larger time frame, where you can spot a new area of support, place your stop below and apply some patience. This is not for everyone, because it is hard to see a -100 or -150 pip position on your account; but if you have the fortitude of will, the margin, and some solid evidence that the price will move back in your favor, or at the very least, to a break even situation, then you can avoid a loss. The key to this tactic, is to not apply your full commitment to a position at first, where you keep plenty of margin in reserve to absorb a negative balance, and look for other opportunities in the meantime.

The lesson is that the market does change behavior, and when it does, so must the tools. As with strategies, rules must change to suit the market. In my first few months of trading, I would assign stop losses and profit targets based on an arbitrary dollar amount, but as I learned something about resistance and support, this became obsolete. Yet, having and following a set of rules is the only thing that a trader can control, and can save a trader from ruin and guide them to success on regular basis.

Trading Journal

Having a diary is great tool for any trader; I've read or heard this tip in at least a dozen places and I don't think I'll stop using mine for as long as I trade. In fact, this blog is part of that journal. How you use the journal or what you write is your business. Some people like to write down all their trade ideas before they execute them. For me, trading is all a matter of successful analysis, planing and timing so I usually do not have the time to write all of my ideas down; by the time I've written it down, in some cases, I've missed my entry, but I do it when I can afford the time, i.e. when the market is moving slowly. I use my journal to write out my ideas when I'm not in the market, most often when I am away from my office, and enjoying a coffee. Being away from the action give me the chance to look at my activities with a more relaxed perspective; I can review my issues, my successes, my opportunities for improvement. I can make plans, go over my goals, review my rules and strategies, and I can be honest with myself if I have adhered to what I have written.

Goal Setting
 
Setting both long term and short term goals is a very good thing to do on a regular basis in order to measure your progress. In my opinion life is about the journey rather than the destination, which means that the bulk of life is spent getting somewhere and the arrival is only a sliver of the whole experience. However, if you have a destination, you have a direction and a purpose, and the impetus to start the important part, the journey. If you have regular goals, you can measure your success by your own standards in time. If you are exceeding your goals you can start increasing your goals. Having progressive goals is one way to give you a motivation for improving your game. If you are missing your goals, or not getting close to them, then you can start to examine why missed those goals; perhaps your goals were unrealistic, or perhaps you had some issues outside your trading activities that forced you to lose some time and productivity, or perhaps you need to identify what you are doing that is holding you back from your potential. Another means of setting goals is to do it visually, both in the mind, and with a goal board. If you want to use your trading proceeds to fund a vacation, put up a picture of where you want to go, or if you want a new car, put that up on the wall.

Positive Thinking

In my experience, having a good attitude goes hand in hand with goal setting; if you enjoy trading, then it makes the process that much easier. I have found that while I may not always be winning, having a good attitude is key to staying in the game and prospering. Even taking losses can be viewed in a positive light, if you understand that losses can be powerful lessons for your future trading success. If you believe in the Laws of Attraction, as I do, then you can apply them to your trading as well, with often surprising results.

Self-Review

Something that most successful people will do on some level or another is to monitor their activities to measure their progress in life. I can't verify this fact because I haven't spoken to all or most successful human beings, but I do notice that many successful people write about their exploits as either trade books, or biographies which are form of self-review. This is where you can be honest with yourself regarding your activities as a trader. Did you follow your rules? Did you break them? If you broke them, did you do it for a very good reason? Perhaps the rule needs to be changed. You can review your activities daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, but regardless, it is a good idea to go over your performance because it is a great opportunity to spot areas where you can improve your trading.

Equity Curve

At first when I started using a graph and spreadsheet containing my profits and losses, I experienced difficulty stopped using it for a period of a few months. I was being dishonest with myself over the fact that for a time I was taking on more losses than gains, and it was painful to commit to a document, and also because, I needed to focus on improving my performance rather than documenting my lack thereof. Nonetheless, even though the losses are painful when they occur and ugly dips in an otherwise increasing curve, I update my equity curve at the end of every trading day to remind myself of what I am doing correctly and what I am doing incorrectly. This provides me with a reality check when I need to improve, and it also shows me graphically the sum of my work over the course of my career. In so doing, it gives me a visual representation (other than my available margin reading on my trading platform) of what I need to protect when I'm in the market; it is an additional pause button for my mind before I think about taking excessive and less-probable risks. Before I open a position think about the other side of the deal, where I may be wrong and I may need to document a drawdown at the end of the day, as a result. This is also helpful in that I have a few built in formulas calculating certain percentage amounts of my available margin, daily. Many successful traders have a rule where you expose a certain percentage of your account on each single trade, some of which apply this to all deals at any single point in time. This percentage varies depending on who you talk to or listen to, it can be as low as 1% or as high as 10%, I've even heard of cases where some traders expose their entire account when they trade, but I imagine they are crazy or that they really know what they are doing and extremely focused and disciplined. Regardless, my spreadsheet shows what the value, in dollars, of 1%, 3%, and 5% of my total margin. This is the amount of exposure to the market I am willing to take in most cases. I have violated the 5% rule on a very small percentage of my total trades, but I have had good reason to do so in these cases; sometimes I have paid the price of a very ugly drawdown, but in most cases, the calculate risk paid off rather well. One argument for going over this percentage might be when you are in a progressively improving trade (but not a progressively diminishing one), you increase your position, or so argues Jessie Livermore. In any case, I have accepted responsibility for each trade before entries, and after exits, regardless of whether or not they were at a profit or a loss.

Although I have found some success with these tools, I am always on the lookout for improving my game, learning new tactics, and overcoming weaknesses and improving my strengths; as with life, trading is not about achieving perfection, but constant attempts at improvement.

EUR/USD Mid-Asia Session Update

Slept through half of the New York session to wake up and have lunch with old friends, after which I watched the afternoon price action which was about as exciting as watching paint dry; from the moment I crashed (after the German data came out) to when I woke up, the price had moved against me by 50 pips and then bounced back to my break even.

I notice that lately Asia seems to be the catalyst for what happens and has been leading with trend establishing moves that are followed in the other two sessions; a demonstration of the economic power shift, or the normal Asian session break-out tendancy re-emerging? A bullish move on risk assets has manifested now in Asia, but price is now hesitating at present levels. EUR/USD moved up above the key 1.4100/1.4110 to reach a high of 1.4132 before being pushed back down to 1.4120/25 where it is now loitering. Short of my first target I have unloaded one of my contracts already, and moved the other 3 in such a way as to lock in enough pips to make this my first 1000 pip (what can I say, I think in round numbers like most people) monthly gain. I will trail my stops manually if we get another squeeze higher, but I anticipate the trading day to be characteristically nutty for the end of the month flows and option plays, so I imagine that my stops will be taken out at a profit soon. In light of the mixed fundamental data from Europe, the IMF declaring that the euro is "overvalued", and of course Goldman Sachs advising the closing of all Long positions in EUR/USD, I think any further upside may be capped at either 1.4140/50 or 1.4180/90, but I cannot predict the future. Part of being a consistently successful trader is knowing when to lock in profits at levels where you are comfortable, leaving a bit of wiggle room for additional gains, but not leaving so much that a reversal will leave you shaking your head about the money you left on the table. As a swing-trade and a contrarian play, this has already worked out nicely. I now wish I had done my usual EUR/USD and GBP/USD long combination play, as I would have done much better. Regardless, I'm only going to be watching my positions from now till the weekend, without any intention of initiating new plays as I will be sleep-deprived once the wackyness starts. Crossing my fingers for another squeeze higher!

Trading and Being Your Own Boss

Unless you work for a firm, trading for a living means that you are your own boss. For some, especially entrepreneurs, this concept is freedom and is part of the reason they are in the market. For others, the idea of being self-employed is frightening because you work without supervision and without the benefit of a structure composed of other individuals; you work alone, and you survive by your own wits. There are benefits and costs, in either case, and I'll front-load the good:

1) You decide your own hours and days

• Enjoy working Monday to Friday like everyone else, with regular hours if you wish. This is great if all of your friends and family operate on this schedule, but not all people have this luxury in this day and age. Many businesses and places of employment operate at either odd hours, on shifts, or 24/7. I've done all these schedules, and while my trading activities have me occasionally trading outside my ideal of Mon-Friday 6am-3pm ish, I trade outside these times when I want rather than when my company tells me that it is required.
  
• Hit and passed your goal and feel like taking the rest of the day or week or month off, you can do so.
• Find that second wind coming on and you are not tired at the end of the session, or you have some deals that are still gaining, you can keep going for as long as you are still effective (but be wary of overtrading of course)
• Find that you are more productive and more profitable at certain times of the day, well you can work those times.

2) You work as hard or as soft as you want

• Part of working for yourself is having the right to work at your own pace, as opposed to working at your boss' pace. For some this might mean more slacking off, but for others it means working harder and more effectively. Personally I've noticed my own work ethic improved dramatically when I started to take my trading seriously and treat it as a full-time job rather than a part-time hobby.
• You are able to balance life and work easier, with some care and planning. At some workplaces, your social networking is seriously curtailed, i.e. no facebook, or personal emails, or phone calls. If you trade for yourself, you can do all the above on your own time, provided you keep track of your work while you're doing it.
• Get it done when it needs to be done, rather than waiting for approval from up above. When I worked in technical support, there was often the problem of upper management questioning what middle management was doing, and on down the line. Often those in the middle and on the bottom are on the ground so to speak, and if they care about what they do, they will usually know what needs to be done to fix a problem for either the company or a client, but would end up with a solution on hold until approval came from above. Precious time was wasted and productive hours were lost when there was a serious lag in communication. As a trader, you have an idea as to what needs to be done within seconds or minutes of a critical decision moment, and the only approval you need come from your strategies, your rules, your equity, and sometimes your gut.

3) You enjoy the full fruits of your labour

• Because you are working for yourself, your profits and losses are yours rather than shared with your company. In many places of employment, often the most productive people carry the rest of the department or organization. In my understanding, this is true downside to communism (which operates on the principal that the all humans are pretty much the same and that the human spirit can be forged to follow a universal set of ideals) and improperly managed corporate structures. Taking realistic human nature into the equation, when everyone in society, an occupation, or a position is paid the same regardless of effort or results, the end result is usually the lowest common denominator of productivity; in other words, why should I work harder and more effectively for the same pay as the slob who only makes the effort of appearing to work hard when he/she is being monitored by a superior?

4) Job security

• No need to worry about downsizing, off-shoring, or closures.
• You are not likely to replace or transfer yourself due to workplace politics or business needs.
• In fact not having to deal with workplace politics really is a complete benefit in and of itself.
  

While the positive aspects seem logical, there are cons to being an independent trader:

1) You need to provide your own work ethic and motivation

• Don't quite feel like trading, but you have yet to reach this week's or last week's goal, you may need to suck it up and start looking for opportunities and deals.
• This doesn't mean trade when there are no opportunities, but you do need to put in a certain amount of time and effort to achieve anything of value (well other than winning the lottery or having a rich uncle that favours you in their will), and this includes being a successful trader.
• This is a profession like no other, but it is still a profession.

2) You need self-analyze your productivity

• Something that many employees either dread or look forward to is the monthly/yearly review, and as a trader you should be tracking your progress.
  
• You will be doing this for yourself, taking extra time out of your day when you are not trading.
  
• This might actually is a benefit for people that are able to objectively criticize themselves and either work around their weaknesses, or overcome them. For others, I recommend learning to do these things very quickly.
  

3) You are responsible for your bottom line

• As an employee, if the company is not profitable one month, you still get your bi-monthly pay, and you will most likely not need to worry about your pay and benefits over the long term. With trading, you are earning money based on the consistent success of your performance.
• If your bottom line dips, or goes in the red, you need to figure things out pretty fast.
• You take care of your own overhead, i.e. paying your rent, power, keep your credit clean and open, pay your Internet connection, and for some traders pay for news/chart feeds, which means your overhead needs to be taken care of in a timely manner or you will not be able to work and earn money.
  
• You are also responsible for maintaining sufficient capital to continue operating your business and your life, even when you are off your game. For most traders, this means planning ahead or having a future-time-orientation, and keeping sufficient savings on hand as case money. Having as much liquid capital as you can amass is key here.
  

4) In many cases, trading is a solitary activity

• Many traders trade by themselves (I do) and sometimes I do miss the back-and-forth with coworkers, having lunch with the gang, the camaraderie of sharing work, being part of a team, and of course the never-ending string of jokes and pranks that I used to enjoy at every half-decent place I've worked.
  
• On the other hand, you can always see your friends and enjoy that time much more when your are not supposed to be working.

All of this comes into focus when you realize that as a self-employed trader, half of your business is to analyze the market and take calculated risks to generate profit on a regular basis, the other half is to analyze yourself before, during and after your trading activities. I find that I will usually devote an hour to a couple of hours on the weekend to serious self-analysis regarding my trade activities, but I usually do as much as I can away from my office so that I can have a fresh and hopefully obejective perspective. Excellent self-management of your trading can make the difference between consistent success and erratic results, so it is worth your time and effort.

Bollinger Bands in the Larger Context

I have been struggling as of yesterday and took on more losses than I care to admit, but I'm still here and I've re-learned the lesson that I keep learning every few weeks or so; bucking the trend continuously can be ruinous to your bottom line. On some days, I can get an idea stuck in my head -for instance buy on the low or sell on the high - and I'll keep doing it despite evidence and information that argues against an entry. I think I'm still dealing with my own psychological issues with regards to being a bit arrogant and firm in my ideas, when this is a game for neither characteristic.

The Bollinger bounce is a great way to get started if you enjoy being right most of the time, but this strategy cannot be blindly followed - something I do without thinking about on occasion, the kind of days when I don't review my rules and strategies prior to trading, oddly enough. The last hyperlink is courtesy of Baby Pips, which is a fantastic resource to use if you have some experience with forex, but I extend my endorcement to a must read if you are a beginer (like myself). The basic idea is to buy or sell when prices go outside of the ranges, where the bollinger bands provide you with a visual representation of those ranges on a chart. Often this can be viewed as going against the trend, but there are ways to use it with a lot of success, for example, using the bollinger bands as an entry point in conjunction with a larger trend. For example, if you trade off of a 15 minute chart (as I do), and then take a look at the hourly chart (which I have in the background), you can see an hourly trend, then look to get into it using a 15 minute chart to find your entry point. So in effect, you may be going against a fifteen minute trend, but in synch with the hourly trend. Used in combination with Fibonacci Retracements and Pivot Points, you can put the odds in your favour. Did that today, and although I entered twice on a GBP short vs the USD, first deal I got stopped out with at 10 pip gain, the second time around wourked out nicely with a 95 pip gain. Although I did not magange the deal to the best of my abilities, left more than 40 pips on the table, and I'm kicking myself for not going in with 2 lots as opposed to 1, I am content to have undone some of yesterday's damage.

In other news, RIM went all the way to 66, but is now consolidating back at 63. I'm curious to see if it will go anywhere near 80 in the next few weeks. In addition to RIM being a great company with a fantastic product (I love my T-Mobile 8320 Curve Titanium), and the seeming appearance of a bottom in stock price a few weeks back, I've heard that Apple's issues with Steve Jobs' illness, may be a factor in the appearant reversal in RIM's price.