EURNOK At 8.1300 ~ At Supply?

While this pair has gone up quite a bit in the last 3 days, forming a Three White Soldiers formation within the up-channel, which could move it higher, I do think it is near the top of the range and I am therefore adding a pending sell order a few hundred pips higher, at 8.2300ish. Should my stop hold, I would look to take profit near the big level of 8.1000 or lower, depending on circumstances as they change.

AUD/USD, 240 Min Chart, Yet Another Perspective

Continuing from my last few posts on this trade, this new snapshot from my charts should speak for itself. This is why everyone should look at multiple time-frames for any trade they are about to take or any trade they are into.

It looks as though price is on the way from swing low to swing high. The next few hours/days will confirm or deny. Yet another perspective, the 5-minute chart drills down to the essence of the action in the Asia session:

It also shows some short term resistance levels against price moving higher.

AUD/USD Update Downtrend Appears Confirmed but...

The Downtrend seems quite evident now on this pair, but it appears as though the low of the trend is in place for the time being. The long position may still have some validity, based on a possible upward move in the channel drawn on an hourly chart here:

A more conservative target of 1.0480 to 1.0490 might be possible, but it probably will not happen during this trading week. I would keep a stop below 1.0380 for the day and possibly even lower for the weekend if I were in a long position. While this might be a mistake, and it does violate a trading rule held by many traders, conditions are dynamic and can often change at a moment's notice. I am of the opinion that adjusting stops can be done within reason if conditions keep your goal within reach and the additional loss is not beyond your tolerance. There is no reward without risk.

RIM Technial Analysis for March to May 2009

Please click on the image to see the proper details and please pardon the crudeness of this candlestick chart, as I haven't figured out how to bring up RIM with e-signal (if it's even possible). I have taken this from the TSX website and included MACD, Volume, bollinger bands (red), and a 50 day moving average (maroon). The Fibonacci levels (magenta) are drawn in and calculated by hand so to speak, and drawn the uptrend channel (green).

Fibonacci Study for RIM:

89-44 = 45

0.382 (38.2%) retracement = 89 - 45 x 0.382 = 89 - 17.19 = 71.81
0.500 (50.0%) retracement = 89 - 45 x 0.500 = 89 - 22 = 67
0.618 (61.8%) retracement = 89 - 45 x 0.618 = 89 - 27.81 = 61.19

For Long entries, the 71.81 level is a good level at which to buy, or 75 for more aggressive traders looking to catch a bollinger bounce. Based purely on technicals, the 71.81 represents both the 0.382 or at 38.2% retracement from the recent and rather massive move off the March lows of 2009 (44/45) to the High of 89/90 in May. Also, the 50 day moving average comes in at this level, along with the recent trend channel (marked in Green). Mind you, if this level is broken with strength, it would be a bearish signal (look for further weakness) and the price may attempt to revisit 61/60 which would be a 50% retracement of the recent uptrend. If I were planning on buying, I would probably be watching the price very closely if it moves below 75 in the next week or two. I may liquidate my position if it goes below, and cut my losses. If the price holds at 70 or above, a move which follows the top of the trading channel could see the price move near 100, and if this channel is broken with strength, we may see another power move of 20 or so points into the 120 area, based on the recent break of 60 - 80 at the beginning of April. This is purely technical and I haven't even begun to digest the fundamentals that I have been researching. Any significant move to the upside would certainly hinge on some positive news for both RIM and the global markets, and the same goes for the downside respectively; the future is still murky right now so naturally be cautious and only trade when you can afford the potential losses. When I am not occupied with the currency market, I will try to go over the fundamentals and update any significant changes to my technical studies for RIM.