Tuesday 20 January 2009

Bollinger Bands in the Larger Context

I have been struggling as of yesterday and took on more losses than I care to admit, but I'm still here and I've re-learned the lesson that I keep learning every few weeks or so; bucking the trend continuously can be ruinous to your bottom line. On some days, I can get an idea stuck in my head -for instance buy on the low or sell on the high - and I'll keep doing it despite evidence and information that argues against an entry. I think I'm still dealing with my own psychological issues with regards to being a bit arrogant and firm in my ideas, when this is a game for neither characteristic.

The Bollinger bounce is a great way to get started if you enjoy being right most of the time, but this strategy cannot be blindly followed - something I do without thinking about on occasion, the kind of days when I don't review my rules and strategies prior to trading, oddly enough. The last hyperlink is courtesy of Baby Pips, which is a fantastic resource to use if you have some experience with forex, but I extend my endorcement to a
must read if you are a beginer (like myself). The basic idea is to buy or sell when prices go outside of the ranges, where the bollinger bands provide you with a visual representation of those ranges on a chart. Often this can be viewed as going against the trend, but there are ways to use it with a lot of success, for example, using the bollinger bands as an entry point in conjunction with a larger trend. For example, if you trade off of a 15 minute chart (as I do), and then take a look at the hourly chart (which I have in the background), you can see an hourly trend, then look to get into it using a 15 minute chart to find your entry point. So in effect, you may be going against a fifteen minute trend, but in synch with the hourly trend. Used in combination with Fibonacci Retracements and Pivot Points, you can put the odds in your favour. Did that today, and although I entered twice on a GBP short vs the USD, first deal I got stopped out with at 10 pip gain, the second time around wourked out nicely with a 95 pip gain. Although I did not magange the deal to the best of my abilities, left more than 40 pips on the table, and I'm kicking myself for not going in with 2 lots as opposed to 1, I am content to have undone some of yesterday's damage.

In other news, RIM went all the way to 66, but is now consolidating back at 63. I'm curious to see if it will go anywhere near 80 in the next few weeks. In addition to RIM being a great company with a fantastic product (I love my T-Mobile 8320 Curve Titanium), and the seeming appearance of a bottom in stock price a few weeks back, I've heard that Apple's issues with Steve Jobs' illness, may be a factor in the appearant reversal in RIM's price.

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