AUD/JPY on 4 Hour Time Frame

The 5 minute entry now on for over 24 hours, and it is in the money. The reversal is in the cards, for now...

Now that the deal is on, it is a question of management, which means exiting at the best possible moment with the information I have at the time. The first trend line of resistance has been breached, but not with excessive strength and price is hovering just above it at the moment. The second line of resistance is where I am shooting for, and is realistic in the next 24-48 hours of trading (meaning I may need to hold over the weekend). The ultimate goal, would be shooting for the monthly high of 83, or even better 83.50 of August. At this point, the next few hours may decide if I close this, take my 300ishUSD from $50,000 in positioning, or if I shoot for higher. So far it has been an incredible month, with this month being the first month that I have earned more in my part time job (trading foreign exchange) than I have in my day job; I would love to wrap it up with another decent sized win...

AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY Dual Trade on Again

So, I was looking at co-relations between risk currencies, and when the Japanese Yen is involved, often one Yen Cross parallels another, so I saw a dip and bought some EUR/JPY to go with my AUD/JPY and...

Look at those candles in the last 10 minutes, some high liquidity appears to be available, meaning big money. I'll see how it works out.

AUD/JPY Update, 5-min Entry becomes and Hourly Chart Trade...A Day Later.

My AUD/JPY did in fact go up, as I had anticipated, but not by much...

The good news is that a new trend may be forming (the potential reversal) I wrote about earlier. If this keeps up, the trend line I have drawn at the bottom right hand of the chart could support further advances. The bad news is that I have two trend lines that could be areas that short money could attract (selling AUD/JPY) ~ The nearest to current price could cap advances near 81, which would still be a good trade, but the next would cap somewhere above 82, which would be an excellent trade.

AUD/JPY Update on my 5-Minute Chart Long Entry

Looking for a move above 80.60-70 as confirmation, and it would be nice for it to happen in the next hour or less. If this does happen, and if the gains hold, I will hold. That's a lot of ifs.

AUD/JPY Trying Again on a Smaller Time Frame

5-minute chart, entry 80.53 buy price, target anywhere above 81

I usually take a look at the daily, then the 4-hour chart, then the 60-min, then the 15-min, but in the last 8 months, most of my entries come from a 5-minute chart because I like to get in at the beginning of a reversal if it happens.

Why the reversal might happen: so much selling over the last eight days, that there are probably a large number of stops above the current price action in the mid 80s.

AUD/JPY Moving down to the 100 Day Moving Average

Feeling a bit risky on this one, but perhaps the 100-Day Moving Average might prove a decent buy point on AUD/JPY. Lately, this pair has been very good to me, but I've been stung once or twice with a couple of losses. On the other hand, my wins have netted me over $1000 in the last couple of months on this pair, and it will most likely bounce in the next day or so, if the current ranges hold.

I'm now waiting for 80.60-80.68, depending; I may not take it, but it's a good enough entry, with a tight stop considering the move down today during the American Session. Bought in, going to wait at least an hour or two to see where price goes, 1st Target would be slightly above 81 and if that is cleared with sufficient margin to keep my stop near there without it getting taken, I would then shoot for 82 or the monthly high of 83.

Aside, I want to reflect on where I am and where I want to be as both a trader and a human being. I am not yet in the place I want to be, but I am alive, I am relatively healthy, relatively young. Nearing the next big figure on my account of 8K, it's been a hell of a year in more ways than one, but despite all my failures and with the aid of my successes, I continue.

AUD/JPY Bullish Spontaneous Move

Bought more, just before it happened, we'll see if it goes up further.

I'm in at 81.1516 for 50K and looking for a large move up. The engulfing candle bar appears to indicate high liquidity on this move; which means a large player might be involved, which means someone with a large amount of capital thinks AUD will rise vs the JPY; which means, that at the moment I'm with the big money on this one. Lately I've taken a few losses, and my confidence is down, but I'm bloodless on this one, and I will chase price according to my method. If I can get 15-20 pips up, I'll move to break-even before I go to sleep. Once again hoping for 82+ on this pair.

Selling JPY, dual setup AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY Update

The EUR is outperforming the AUD vs the JPY, but I am still hoping for a range break on both, which would be be indicated by a move above the downward trendline on both charts.

Selling JPY, dual setup AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY

Going long on both AUD and EUR vs. JPY

A few minutes later, I have a couple of decent confirmations to stay in...

Aiming for the next big figures on both, but as it is a Sunday here in the Western Hemisphere, and action in Asia at the start of the week can be subdued and range-bound, I will probably move both to break-even as soon as it is reasonable and take what I can get. Either way, it is money in the bank.

AUD/JPY Looks Like a Triangle in the Play

Earned money on this last night, while I was asleep, buying in again, this time lighter contract, because I'm relaxing, and I've hit my monthly goal.

Went long at 82.10, hoping to catch 60 - 65 Pips, risking about 20 pips. Japan's Aug. Imports fall 5.4% from a year earlier, not sure if this is bad for risk or bad for the YEN, or one might cancel the other out. I'll see in the next few minutes on the reaction.

GBP/JPY Shorting Now - Correction Appears Possible

Shorting the GBP/JPY, which to me, appears heavily overbought considering the state of affairs of the UK economy. Normally I do not take trades at this time, but I made the fatal mistake of opening my charts and looking for an opportunity. These days, I cannot open a chart and not see some sort of angle. I'm trading light here, because I'd rather relax and prepare for Monday, but here it is:

Looking for price to move from 126.96 down to either 126.50 or even better, down to 126.20 (Fibonacci levels of the latest rise), I need to pay for a new monitor and start planning on buying a car. My risk, so far 8 basis points, or pips at 127.068 on a 40K. I will glance at the charts and move this one into break even as soon as it is reasonable. Time to relax, and welcome to the new trading week of Sept 17, 2012 to Sept 23, 2012.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY Trade Update - Bulls Win with Announcement of "QE Infinity"

With the announcement of the United States Federal Reserve announcing QE3 (link to bloomberg.com) with a pledge to continue asset purchases until the US economy improves, the USD has lost quite a bit of value in the course of a single trading day. My estimate, looking at my quote sheet is about 1 - 1.5 cents against everything so far.

I have a couple of trades on AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, long on both, prior to the FOMC meeting and press conferences, doing fairly well on average. After the announcement, it was quite a fight but both pairs have put in some impressive highs for the week, and the corrections (thus far) seem to be muted.

I am currently waiting on both of these positions to see if they have the potential to reach my first targets of 1.06 on AUD/USD and 82.00 on AUD/JPY, though I may have to wait to see what the Asian Session brings.

AUD Looking Poised for Another Climb

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY both look poised for additional gains, based on my study of these charts. I'm looking at the 15 minute on both.

I'm already long on both, as both carry trades and with profit targets of 1.06/07 on AUD/USD and 82.00/83.00 on AUD/JPY. Thursday and Friday should be interesting to see how they play out.

USD/CHF Trade Idea > Long at Demand Zone

Based on the last significant Demand Zone, I am entering an Automated Trade order based on this chart:

Based on the last significant buying area (demand zone), when it was a good idea to go long on this pair, I have entered an automated order to purchase 3 mini-lots or a $30,000 contract to purchase this pair long at 0.9433 if it dips with the intention of the pair bouncing up to a supply zone of 0.9560ish. Risk -ve 23 pips vs. Reward +ve 129pips. I may remove the automated order and do this one manually or adjust the entry point based on the activity in the next hour or two. Swing low to swing high.

Review and Strategy Going forward into Autum 2012

After what I would consider a slow start to the year, with only a couple of trades (literally only one in February), and then a meager spring (only a few), my summer took off and never looked back. I have managed to reach the point where my trading activities are netting almost the equivalent to my day job salary. I work almost 50 hours a week, by the way. I'm not bragging, well, I have put in nearly 5000 hours into this over the last few years, and, it seems, while I was not a slow learner, I was slow to control myself.

This morning, I took my monthly statement from my broker, along with a notebook and sat down in a coffee shop and wrote a bit. My August was decent to say the least, $1670 in profit from a less than $5,000 trading account. 5k was a bit of a barrier for me as I had been there before and crashed afterwards. Now, I'm sitting nicely at $5,800 and looking to $10,000 in the coming months. So far, September has been decent to me with $670 earned this week. I have no illusions about not needing a day job at the moment, but I think the next book I purchase will be the The 4-Hour Work Week.

In the last couple of weeks, something interesting happened, I learned to pace myself, I learned to not sit at my desk all the time and stare at the charts for trades that I had under way. I learned to trust myself, step away and allow my trades to work out. I have in fact spent less time trading and my profits have improved.

Aside from everything else I am doing this weekend, I am going to put some time into studying chart patterns, and planning a couple of automated trades for the next week. I have only limited experience with this, so I will only be using light orders for this while I get my feet wet. In theory, a few minutes of analysis a day could earn profit without me having to manage the trades while they are in process. Now, time to study a bit.

AUD bad data (Trade Balance) but a muted negative response

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

-556M Actual > -300M Consensus > 9M Previous

This is where I get a bit scared, so trade balance is down, down by more than anticipated, and the result is that the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY both dipped but are now showing stability. When this happens, I start to think either technical analysis is winning over fundamental analysis or that something is rotten in Denmark. Mind you, I'm hoping both pairs go up but I can't figure out why.

AUD/JPY Bullish for now...

It is a bit late to share this idea, because the time to buy would have been 100-140 pips ago, when I did, but here it is. Good data out of Australia last yesterday and good ADP data, and good ISM data = AUD/JPY up.

In theory, based on ADP data earlier today, the NFP should be okay, and it could go higher. I have a target of 82 to 83, but who knows. Of course the trade balance data out in 20 minutes is pointing south so I may just collect my 100+ pips and call it a week on this pair.