Thursday 30 July 2009

EUR/USD Mid-Asia Session Update

Slept through half of the New York session to wake up and have lunch with old friends, after which I watched the afternoon price action which was about as exciting as watching paint dry; from the moment I crashed (after the German data came out) to when I woke up, the price had moved against me by 50 pips and then bounced back to my break even.

I notice that lately Asia seems to be the catalyst for what happens and has been leading with trend establishing moves that are followed in the other two sessions; a demonstration of the economic power shift, or the normal Asian session break-out tendancy re-emerging? A bullish move on risk assets has manifested now in Asia, but price is now hesitating at present levels. EUR/USD moved up above the key 1.4100/1.4110 to reach a high of 1.4132 before being pushed back down to 1.4120/25 where it is now loitering. Short of my first target I have unloaded one of my contracts already, and moved the other 3 in such a way as to lock in enough pips to make this my first 1000 pip (what can I say, I think in round numbers like most people) monthly gain. I will trail my stops manually if we get another squeeze higher, but I anticipate the trading day to be characteristically nutty for the end of the month flows and option plays, so I imagine that my stops will be taken out at a profit soon. In light of the mixed fundamental data from Europe, the IMF declaring that the euro is "overvalued", and of course Goldman Sachs advising the closing of all Long positions in EUR/USD, I think any further upside may be capped at either 1.4140/50 or 1.4180/90, but I cannot predict the future. Part of being a consistently successful trader is knowing when to lock in profits at levels where you are comfortable, leaving a bit of wiggle room for additional gains, but not leaving so much that a reversal will leave you shaking your head about the money you left on the table. As a swing-trade and a contrarian play, this has already worked out nicely. I now wish I had done my usual EUR/USD and GBP/USD long combination play, as I would have done much better. Regardless, I'm only going to be watching my positions from now till the weekend, without any intention of initiating new plays as I will be sleep-deprived once the wackyness starts.
Crossing my fingers for another squeeze higher!

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