Tuesday 4 August 2009

Contrarian Plays for the USD in seemingly oversold conditions = Buy Low, Sell High

Sold 2 mini-contracts of GBP/USD at the 1.6930ish (downtrending resistance on the hourly) as the cable seems to have overextended it's reach; that and a double top at the 1.70ish area. Bought 1 mini-contract of USD/CHF which I almost never play, but seems very oversold on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, and appears to have based out at or near 1.06/1.0610 where I bought. Last week was an amazing week for risk, so there is the possibility that we get the usual correction or consolidation. I'm going fairly light this week because there is hesitation both ways right now, which means it's not the time for aggressive and heavy positioning. I would like to have both of these positions turn into swing trades, but I'll have to see what the mood of the market is in the next few hours to see if I have confirmation. Although the S&P has cleared the 1000 mark, there is hesitation in the afternoon to carry it higher, and the USD selling has paused. Nontheless I am fully concious of the trends, and I am hoping to move myself to break even on both deals at the first reasonable opportunity. If I have some spare time later, I'll show some charts on both pairs.

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