It has been a heck of a week

I am a bit busy to be posting charts and detailed analysis at the moment. My EURUSD -ve and USDCHF +ve trades worked out decently during the week, and a bit of scalping here and there has kept me on my toes. Sold the EUR again, bought it during the ECB meeting where I am pretty sure everyone went "bullish" on the currency. Then took a short - which was poorly timed, but the deal still has potential either to BE or a bit better. Also bought some USDCHF during the latest plunge, that deal is also underwater at the moment.

I am not sure what next week will bring, but I did manage to push my leverage envelope a bit and took a nice 50 pip scalp by shorting GBPUSD with a single contract prior to the NFP drop that occurred after the "surprise" to the upside and a broad USD recovery - which is my lesson for the week, and one I have learned previously but obviously not all that well. Having a good idea and having a good trade setup, and excellent execution can still leave you wanting if your margin is tied into deals that are going nowhere fast.

Inside me there are two traders, or three: one trader takes the long view and takes deals that will most likely pay off well in the long run, but has to wait patiently before they pay off, and consequently is eager to tie his margin up to have his money "at work". The other trader maintains a short view, if it is not happening now, it is not happening, sees opportunities on the spot and takes the plunge, trading fast and hard, and gives nothing back, and likes to keep his margin open and available, and rarely gets "trapped". Should I gain sufficient capital, I will promise to open a second account, and keep these two traders separate.

In the meantime, as I rarely have the time to update this blog, though I still do, and plan to keep it going, I have added a twitter feed on the sidebar, which is much easier to update on the fly so to speak, so feel free to follow me there.

Feburary 2014 Over, March begins, Updates and Ideas

EURUSD -ve 10K @ 1.375 as of Feb 28, 2014

EURUSD Daily Chart taken March 1, 2014 - Indicators used RSI, CCI 20, ADX/DMI

Looking to sell into current rally as my Monthly TF puts sell zone from 1.3750-1.3975

Considering adding to short above 1.38, possibly this week if price moves up.

Will consider adding if it goes down as well, suffice to say I am long term bearish on EUR vs USD

I would cut and run on a strong move above said 1.3975-1.4060 depending. A daily close above 1.39 would be extremely troubling for this idea/and first sell order, prior to any action near 1.40 regardless. A more cautious move would be to wait for a series of movements to point the way back below 1.3720 to add additional contracts.

Should this position be held until next Friday, March 07, 2014, NFP results may well decide if it stays on.

More to add to this post later...time to relax

GBPNZD Is that a touch of Negative (Bearish) Divergence I see?

Possibly, if you compare the tops here (provided the price does not move significantly higher). Seeing the two red dots I have painted on both the RSI below the price action and the price chart. As a bonus, both 240 minute Bollinger Bands have been pierced, which to me, means possibly a heavily overbought situation on the pound vs. the kiwi.

I am now holding with a stop above, and my target would be lower by a couple hundred pips, but is subject to change, as with the stop loss. As this would be a positive carry trade, the risk reward has an added bonus of earning daily regardless of price action. Price at the time of this writing was 1.9633/40 (where the dot is approx).

USDCHF Daily Candle Trendline Break

This morning I woke up to this. As of 08:20 EST, the descending trend-line drawn from the September 6, 2013 highs has been violated in force with this daily candle. If the data this morning continues in favor of the USD, the next theoretical supply zone is 0.9180 where I have drawn the horizontal red line. I am still long for the time being and watching data and price into the close today. Looking back, the most recent FOMC meeting gave the dollar a shot in the arm. On the other side of this trade, the pair may fall due to profit taking, and the next 2 hours or so are key. Data for USD today:
                                                                               Actual        Consensus   Prev

08:58	USD		Manufacturing PMI	51.8	51.1           51.1
09:10	USD		FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
10:00	USD		ISM Manufacturing Index		55.0           56.2
10:00	USD		ISM Manufacturing Prices		55.0           56.5
10:30	USD		ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)		2.0%
17:00	USD		All Car Sales		7.53M
17:00	USD		Domestic Car Sales		5.30M          5.24M
17:00	USD		Total Vehicle Sales		15.40M        15.21M

The Importance of a Good Environment and Rest ~ Objective: a Healthy Mindset for a Trader

When I moved at the end of last week I did not lose anything of significance but I did lose opportunities during and after the move, both in terms of business and personal. My last living situation was seemingly nice on the outside, a pretty decent house with lots of light, in an okay neighborhood, but it was far from ideal because I was at odds with it, with no one to blame but myself; my current situation is far from ideal as well, but it gives me the peace I need to make better decisions. The situation was so out of balance I even wrote a blog about it to channel the negative energy into something constructive.

When trading, environment and mindset is key. If the environment is a source of negative influence, how does this affect a trading career and how does it affect everything you do? I can answer in a word; it taints everything you do, but I can elaborate. It taints every decision you make, and trading is making decisions! If you are bathed in a constant stream of negative influence, bad energy, and disharmony, you can become desperate. You may not, but why stack the odds against yourself, when you are trying to accomplish something important. As I trade from home, I do not have the luxury of going to an office and leaving my home environment and all the potential distractions and stressors. When I think about all of the opportunities I missed or screwed up over the last several months, it is disheartening, but sometimes, the best lessons come with a high price.

Why fight negativity if you can leave it behind and concentrate on improving and succeeding. Now that I am partially settled, I can get back into a healthy routine and make better decisions for myself in terms of career and personal life. The lesson, be careful with both your associations and your environment because your time is valuable.

Swinging back to the positive, I dug up a great webinar by Steve Patterson that explains the upside of what I am saying here. If you are struggling as a trader, or you want to improve your game, the importance of rest and health is one of the keys, enjoy:

Becoming a consistent trader

Possibly Looking to Pick up An AUDJPY Contract if My Price is Met

Looking at AUDJPY ~ I would love to have bought in the high 80s the last time it was in that vicinity - oh wait, I did, but I did not hold. My living circumstances at the time contributed to a poor trading environment, but that is another post altogether.

Looking at this hourly chart for AUDJPY, I am looking at the area below current prices as a possible buying point. If I were more aggressive, I would buy now and say the hell with it, but that latest hourly candle is looking like a hammer, which means down further possibly. The 92.60-90 area could be a great buying opportunity as a potential demand zone, if it holds and moves back up into the next supply area at 0.9350ish. I have a pending order at this point in that area and I am watching closely the data coming up in the next few hours.

USDCHF and NZDCHF Updates ~ Both Longs in Money Currently

Not too much time to write here, I am long on both of these currency pairs, from more than a week ago on USDCHF - which has been under water till this morning, and my NZDCHF which dipped yesterday uncomfortably below 0.74 but moved back up since the FOMC meeting. I am holding both for higher prices, but I have to accept the possibility that the market does not agree with me. In the next few hours I am looking for USDCHF (on the left) to violate the downward trendline from the September 2013 highs. and for NZDCHF to clear the 0.75 handle. My most immediate concern right now is the October NFP report which comes out on Friday November 8th where USDCHF (wherever it is) may take a monstrous hit because the NFP is not looking good from where I am standing.

NZDCHF Update on the Hourly

Not too much movement, the pair has been confined to a 40 or so pip range since I took the deal, but it seems to have broken the first line of resistance drawn on my chart here (diagonal descending trend-line in red). It is still below the two parallel lines of resistance which I consider a possible sell area slightly above.

Risk event is of course the RBNZ rate decision and the accompanying statement:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary_policy/ocr/
Forex.com provides a bit of insight here:
http://www.forex.com/post?SDN=fba3bc39-0af7-423a-9394-561668b47628

Moving Done, Unpacking Started, Trading Slowly at First ~ NZDCHF Looking good as a small carry to join my USDCHF

Moving done, unpacking started, and the trades are starting. I am kicking myself a bit for jumping the gun on my EUR/USD short today ~ taking a measly 15 pips before the real move started, same with EUR/JPY, but that one did not travel as far down. Still, a few pips added to the account is better than a kick in the butt...as I have learned to tell myself when this sort of thing happens. Another way of putting this into perspective is that my life just changed drastically and my trading was only off-line for about 3 days ~ a bad three days to be out being month end an all, but C'est la vie!

I have not traded this pair at all, and NZDUSD is still a bit expensive for my liking, I would love to buy that in the high 70s and hold it, so I will do this instead as it has come down quite a clip in the last quarter and looks to be basing around the 0.74 handle.

I am only playing on contract, and as such it gives me almost nothing to play with in terms of multiple scenarios. I would love it to bounce back above 75, but I think that may provide some near-term resistance. RBNZ rhetoric should also provide some talking against this position, but I think a trip to 0.7470-90 could happen relatively quickly, say a couple of days. I will be watching for that level and would probably get out on a significant retrace if it goes up and turns back down below 75; in the meantime, it is a relatively stable carry trade. First hurdle would be 0.7030-45 on this one.
 

EURNOK At 8.1300 ~ At Supply?

While this pair has gone up quite a bit in the last 3 days, forming a Three White Soldiers formation within the up-channel, which could move it higher, I do think it is near the top of the range and I am therefore adding a pending sell order a few hundred pips higher, at 8.2300ish. Should my stop hold, I would look to take profit near the big level of 8.1000 or lower, depending on circumstances as they change.

EURUSD Selling Opportunity Weekly Bollinger Band Touch

I am a breakout trader and I am a range trader, which strategy I use depends on the situation. With the way I have my Bollinger Bands set up, I rarely see a touch on these, and when I do, I take the opportunity. I do have a stop here on this sell, but it is well above 1.38 which I think would be the next resistance area on EURUSD as the currency has now made a new high for 2013. I am selling at 1.3760, with the objective to be decided over the next day or so, should my stop hold. Should price reverse in the next day and start heading lower this makes for a decent swing trade setup. As a supporting factor, the RSI on EURUSD is not matching the recent strength of price action, therefore, this could be the start of a bearish divergence signal.

Trading On The Go ~ I Move In Four Days

I had the intention of not trading during the last week and this week as I find myself in transition, but then, I make the mistake of opening my charts and seeing opportunities at every turn. I had read somewhere that you should not trade when things are unstable in your emotional realm ~ but that is how life is and if I were to only trade when things were stable, I would have too much time off. I found a good compromise in that I open smaller positions than I can when my life is in extreme flux to compensate the stress load and the results are good! In fact, by playing smaller positions, I've learned to do more with less, as the saying goes. Over the last couple of days, I had a tiny position in EURUSD -ve which I cashed in this morning for +8 pips, USDJPY +ve which I cashed in for +41 pips, and a USDCHF +ve which I cashed in for +2 pips. 50 pips is not bad considering I did not plan on trading at all. Since that, I've re-opened a long USDCHF at a better price and I am sitting in a coffee shop right now, planning the rest of the packing I have to do and the move I have scheduled for this Friday.

The Value of Mobility

Just recently, I found myself away from home (and therefore my desktop) for about three weeks out of the last seven. I did have prior knowledge so I have a laptop. This is about the first time in ten years since I have owned a laptop and I must say that considering what it has done for me, along with the proliferation of Starbucks locations (and their free WiFi service). I am not yet the type of trader that can leave my positions running for days without checking and managing them, so the ability to operate when I am not at a desktop computer is invaluable for me. I know, I could still check my phone and call in (I won't talk about the lousy phone app that my broker provides), so instead I'll just say that I am happy with my new mobile solution. There is nothing worse than a missed opportunity, and this should cut down on those.

EURNOK Triangle ~ Fading Move Up

EUR/NOK is not a pair that I don't have extensive experience with, but it does offer opportunities. I'm noticing that price has moved into what I consider the upper end of the range for the last several months, so I think a sell with a reasonable stop makes sense from a risk reward perspective:

Selling near current levels 8.14000 for a move back down even to 8.00 or lower, say to 7.8000-7.9000 with a stop above the recent highs at 8.1650 could work out.

USD/CHF Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Asian Session

I am only beginning to start using Ichimoku in my analysis, certainly not yet for entries, but I think I'm going to start using it more. USD/CHF is now challenging 1st level of resistance in my view. After going below 0.9100 a few times in the last several days, the pair has managed to carve out a temporary base at 0.9090-0.9110 and is advancing on 0.9130-40:

Slightly bullish, but cautiously considering the recent drop. In my view, if it goes higher, the next test would be 0.9170-80, above here, gains can accelerate. Aside from the move up in price, on this chart with Ichimoku cloud, the Tenkansen line (blue) has just crossed the Kijunsen line (green) in the last 4-hour candle; a sign of an impending move up if things hold up.